2008 Predictions
We will first start out by picking the regular season predictions (which can be found on the link below), followed by the playoff brackets. We will then cap it all off with players that we see taking home the hardware for their performances in the ‘08 year. Let’s get to it:
REGULAR SEASON STANDINGS: (Click the link below)
2008 MLB Fleece Factor Regular Season Predictions
2008 PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS:
McFleece:
ALDS
BOS over CLE in 5; DET over LAA in 3
NLDS
NYM over COL in 4; MIL over ARI in 5
ALCS
BOS over DET in 6
NLCS
NYM over MIL in 6
WORLD SERIES
BOS over NYM in 6
___________________________
Old Navy King:
** NYY beat CLE in a 1-game playoff
ALDS
BOS over SEA in 4; NYY over DET in 5
NLDS
NYM over COL in 4; LAD over CHC in 5
ALCS
BOS over NYY in 6
NLCS
NYM over LAD in 7
WORLD SERIES
BOS over NYM in 6
____________________________
Mr. Fleece:
** DET beats NYY in 1-game playoff
ALDS
BOS over DET in 5; CLE over LAA in 4
NLDS
NYM over ARI in 4; CHC over LAD in 5
ALCS
CLE over BOS in 7
NLCS
CHC over NYM in 7
WORLD SERIES
CLE over CHC in 6
____________________________
The Biscuit:
ALDS
NYY over SEA in 5; CLE over BOS in 5
NLDS
NYM over ARI in 4; LAD over CHC in 5
ALCS
CLE over NYY in 6
NLCS
NYM over CHC 6
WORLD SERIES
CLE over NYM in 6
___________________________
2008 AWARDS:
McFleece:
AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera
NL MVP: Matt Holliday
AL Cy Young: Josh Beckett
NL Cy Young: Johan Santana
AL Manager of Year: Joe Maddon
NL Manager of Year: Ned Yost
AL Rookie of Year: Evan Longoria
NL Rookie of Year: Kosuke Fukudome
AL Comeback Player: Francisco Liriano
NL Comeback Player: Ben Sheets
Old Navy King:
AL MVP: David Ortiz
NL MVP: David Wright
AL Cy Young: Erik Bedard
NL Cy Young: Johan Santana
AL Manager of Year: Jim Leyland
NL Manager of Year: Joe Torre
AL Rookie of Year: Clay Buchholz
NL Rookie of Year: Cameron Maybin
AL Comeback Player: Rich Harden
NL Comeback Player: Mark Prior
Mr. Fleece:
AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera
NL MVP: Mark Teixeira
AL Cy Young: Erik Bedard
NL Cy Young: Brandon Webb
AL Manager of Year: Eric Wedge
NL Manager of Year: Joe Torre
AL Rookie of Year: Joba Chamberlain
NL Rookie of Year: Joey Votto
AL Comeback Player: Rich Harden
NL Comeback Player: Pedro Martinez
The Biscuit:
AL MVP: Victor Martinez
NL MVP: David Wright
AL Cy Young: Erik Bedard
NL Cy Young: Carlos Zambrano
AL Manager of Year: John McLaren
NL Manager of Year: Joe Torre
AL Rookie of Year: Clay Buchholz
NL Rookie of Year: Johnny Cueto
AL Comeback Player: B.J. Ryan
NL Comeback Player: Nick Johnson
OK , it’s official. You guys are morons.The Braves add Glavine , Jurrjens and Hampton.
The Braves have had the most competitive spring training in more than a decade.
Mark Teixeira will be anchoring the Braves lineup all season along with Chipper Jones.
The Braves are faster , better defensively ,and the deepest team in the division.
I could go on and on , but it’s useless.
You guys are biased beyond belief if you really think that the Atlanta Braves have only improved themselves by four games.
Just another bunch of haters who cannot stand what Bobby Cox has accomplished.
Yeah. no you’re wrong Coach.
Braves are not the best team in the division. You talk about adding Glavine as if it’s a positive. No. Braves lucky to finish in second
The Braves rotation has an ERA of 2.76
The muts rotation has an ERA 4.84
I rest my case.
Coach man, relax. Calling people morons is no way to solve anything brother. Just disagree and then make your own predictions. No need to get nasty.
Coach,
We are not the ones citing Spring Training stats to make our argument about the upcoming season. You gotta stop that. Angel Pagan is hitting over .300, so I assume I can pencil him in for a Wright-type of season, correct? Then the Mets offense is going to be awesome again!
Coach,
None of us here have ever bashed the Braves as a team that has no shot of contending (at least I don’t think so). I don’t think any of us would be shocked if the Braves won the NL East even; they are a good team. But our feelings are merely opinions, and it turns out we all like the Mets to win the East, which isn’t exactly crazy talk. No need to take shots man.
-ONK
Well, it’s obvious Coach is not alright, haha. I’ve never seen someone get so nasty because a blog didn’t pick his team in the pre-season to win a division. What a homer.
41 year old Smoltz starting the season on the DL…cant be a good sign
Yeah, I mean, notice how he never mentioned Smoltz going on the DL with a shoulder issue!
Homer.
Wow, this guy almost makes me and Utley for Prez look objective, and I currently have the Mets finishing eight in front of Atlanta and thirteen in front of Philly. That’s insanely homerish. Adding Glavine is a negative. Ditto for Hampton, who probably won’t pitch anyway. And what happens when Tex strolls into Queens next year?
You can’t site spring training stats as a reasonable measure for deciding whether a team’s pitching staff is any good. The Mets’ third starter is a lock for 16-18 wins. The Braves’ third starter will be lucky to win 10. I don’t care about spring training ERA (oh, and by the way, John Maine’s is 2.63, if you cared).
The one major problem I have (besides all the Dodgers homers) is with Mr. Fleece’s picking Joba Chamberlain to win AL Rookie of the Year. I walked into a local sporting goods store to buy a Santana jersey, and all I saw when I walked in the door was a massive poster of Joba the Hutt and #62 shirts lining the walls. HE PITCHED 24 INNINGS! The only reason he was the Yankees’s set-up man at all was because their bullpen was so bad! All the pressure and weight will catch up to Joba this year, no doubt.
It’s possible, Omar. I just think his stuff is flat-out filthy. I do NOT expect similar lights-out production, but I think he could be very vital to any success the Yankees have, and is a top candidate for the award. That’s just my opinion though.
Also, as I was picking the Dodgers I was thinking about how furious you were going to be when you read it. Haha!
I just sweat Billingsley, Broxton, Saito, and Lowe and Penny to a lesser extent, what can I say?
The Braves will win the division period.
Superior hitting.
Superior pitching.
My bold prediction for the year is that the Red Sox may get seriously shortchanged this season, to the point of not making the postseason. The Schilling problem was the first issue, but now Beckett’s having health issues. I still don’t feel like he’s proven what the norm is yet, and last year may be the abberation, at least in terms of health (obviously his stuff is dynamite). Without that 1-2 punch in full swing, this is a significantly weaker team. They could find themself one major injury away from a tailspin this summer. Papi may already be headed towards that fast, slippery slope of decline big sluggers go through. Manny isn’t quite the same hitter he once was. I just don’t see this as the same team that won the WS last year, and they didn’t give themself enough of a facelift to try and be anything else. I see some pretty similar problems in Anaheim as well, and although I’m not sure the Mariners are good enough to mount a serious threat, but I almost feel like I have to go with them by default right now unless the Halos rotation gets healthy in a hurry.
So, with that, here’s my crazy call, which I’m sure I’ll take a bit of crap for:
DC=Division Champ
WC=Wild Card
AL:
NYY (DC) vs. SEA (DC)
DET (DC) vs. TBR (WC) (that’s right, R is for RAYS)
NYY vs. DET
NL:
NYM (DC) vs. CHC (DC)
ARI (DC) vs. ATL (WC)
The West is going to be too competitive IMO to draw a WC. I think it’ll be PHI or ATL, and right now I like ATL better just by a hair.
NYM vs. ARI (best playoff series in years if it happens)
World Series:
NYM vs. DET
I refuse to call a WS winner just yet, but that’s how I see it otherwise.
And just to update OmarRocks! Maine’s spring ERA is now 1.78. He just seems to be a guy that’s been consistently underrated for three years running now, with myself at times included in that group.
I don’t necessarily agree that ST stats mean zilch, I just think its important to make inferences based on all available information. For example, Mike Pelfreys 8.00+ ERA while competing for a rotation spot is not encouraging at all. He clearly needs some minor league time. No extra info needed. Period.
On the other hand, Maine’s 1.78 ERA has come about through simply getting ready and working on his pitches. In the two or three starts prior to this, he was throwing an inordinate number of changeups, his third best pitch. The results are telling as to how far that pitch has come along. Its probably still his most vulnerable pitch, as evidenced by today’s 6 IP 1 H outing in which he was tuning up his slider, which has been a pretty good pitch since the end of 2006.
John Maine is not going to post a sub-2.00 ERA this season. But what he might do is surprise everyone and become a legitimate, reliable, top of the rotation pitcher. If you follow his development curve, he wasn’t the quickest riser, but he started on a sharp uphill slope in early 2006 (obviously with some bumps in the road). I had assumed he was about ready to level off. But if he can get that changeup to be a third above average MLB pitch, that simply might not be the case.
And when you think about it, aside from the March results this year, he’s in the perfect situation to improve that specific pitch. Think about all the awesome changeups the Mets have on their staff that come in with different grips and from different angles and make great hitters look foolish: Johan Santana, Pedro Martinez, Aaron Heilman, Duaner Sanchez, and Matt Wise. Those are all relatively effective MLB pitchers (or better), and each one doesn’t just feature a good changeup, but a devastating one (if you don’t believe me in regard to the relievers, go watch some video, all three have downright filthy changeups). Being a smart, quiet, hard working, and open minded kid, its almost impossible to imagine some of that NOT rubbing off on Maine. Sure Heilman was around for a while, and Maine always could talk to him about the change, but even Pedro and Sanchez have sadly been absent through most of Maine’s Mets tenure (he didn’t really start to get consistent action until the second half of 2006).
Meddler, I think Figgy is gonna get the fifth starter’s job. He’s having a solid spring (not that it matters), but more importantly, El Duque is looking more and more like El Deadguy and Mike Pelfrey clearly needs a full year in the minors. Figueroa actually had a nice 1 2/3 innings today. Hopefully, we can sign Freddy Garcia when he’s healthy, or hope Figgy can get it done.
I’ve been saying for months that John Maine is a lock for at least 17 wins and a sub-3.5 ERA. He’s a great kid with one of the best fastballs in the league. It rides up on the batter and touches 97 mph. Most people don’t know that. Maine should be an elite starter by season’s end, and I’m ecstatic to have him on my fantasy team.
I don’t like saying anyone who’s never done it at least twice before is a lock for those kinds of numbers, but yeah, I like Maine a lot, and a season like that would surprise me less than most Mets fans. He opened my eyes in mid 2006, and I was sold when I read a Ted Berg article on SNY.tv the following offseason that cited a statistic about Maine’s fastball. In 2006, there was only one pitcher who had a better BPS (BA+SLG) against his fastball than John Maine. I don’t think anyone would have guessed Maine was even in the top 10 in this category. BTW, the one guy who was ahead of him was a cheater who also happened to pitch only half the season that year. Any guesses?
As for the fifth starter slot, I’ve been saying they need to stretch out Sosa and start him in the rotation, but its cutting it awful close to get him ready to be an SP. I think “Figgy” is a much more versatile pitcher more suited to a bullpen role. With Sosa, you can play with the rotation a bit early on, slot him in against as many righty heavy lineups as possible, hope to get a little lucky, and you might have a very valuable trade commodity by May or June, and that could be very important for a team with the fragility the Mets have already shown.
Also, did you see Omar’s quote about how he’d be willing to give Niese a shot this year at some point? Maybe if Sosa pitches well until the deadline, you still sell him and then let Niese take over (of course that’s assuming the worst with Pelfrey and El Duque by then).
I don’t want them to give Niese a shot; he, like Pelfrey, could use a full year in the minors. Stretching out Sosa is a bad idea. He causes enough trouble as a middle reliever, and it will never happen anyway. Right now, Figgy is technically the #7, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up the #5 considering he’s the only candidate for that spot that hasn’t imploded at least once this season. LETS GO METS!
Hey, on June 9 last year Sosa carried a 6-1 record and a 2.64 ERA all as a starter. I don’t think he’s anything special, but he’s the kind of guy that can get hot and might look tempting to a team desperate for pitching.
You’re probably right about Niese, but some Mets fans want Fernando Martinez to be the opening day LF. I think giving Niese a look isn’t quite as crazy.
Omar/Meddler…
What’s up? Really the Mets only have 2 locks(Santana and Maine)as starters. In truth how many innings will Pedro pitch this year? I would almost bet less than 150. El can’t break a pane of glass is not looking good. O Perez is starting to look as if he will post a 6.00 ERA this year. Every post I read on a Mets blog states that Pelfrey should be in AAA and his replacement is Niese who hasn’ pitched above High A ball.
Your top 2 plus whoever isn’t going to pitch/eat enough innings. Willie will burn through your bullpen again just like last year. I see pitchers returning from injuries for you guys( Pedro, El Duque, Sanchez) and not enough depth in the starting rotation, especialy if O Perez tanks, and Pedro misses some starts.
GO BRAVES…
In case no one here has noticed , the Mets starting pitching is in trouble.
Johan Santana(3.15 ERA) and John Maine(1.78 ERA) look ready to go.
Pedro Martinez has an ERA of 2.00 , but just nine innings and two starts so far.
Oliver Perez has an ERA of 5.79 , he has blown hot and cold all spring.
Mike Pelfrey has continued to struggle (8.31 ERA) which has been the story of his career so far as a major league starter.
El Duque looked horrible in his lone start , going three innings and giving up five earned runs. He is not ready to start the season.
Beyond these six , the Mets have virtually nothing for quality depth since they traded Philip Humber , Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra for Johan Santana.
The Mets spring training record of 17-9 is nothing but a mirage. They look exactly like the Braves were last season , a third place team.
well. David Pinto did a little study that showed that there is still some correlation between ST and the regular season . espically if the team’s record falls into either extreme.
personally I can’t see the Mets not being the favorite. though their certainly not completely unflappable.
Buster Olney picked your Braves to win the division, Coach…did that make you “excited” ?
Coach,
Smoltz is on DL, Soriano is still complaining of soreness in his elbow, Hampton can’t be counted on, Glavine is gutless and old….but don’t sweat it, you guys got a GREAT pitching staff.
Well put, Franklin. I couldn’t have said it better myself. Which staff would you rather have?
Santana (do I need a reason?)
Pedro (”best shape of my life”)
Maine (brilliant fastball, extremely underrated)
Perez (has only one terrible start this spring)
Figueroa (one of the hottest pitchers in baseball)
Smoltz (hurt and 41, but can still pitch)
Hudson (flat-out solid)
Glavine (can’t get out of the first)
James (poised for breakout or one-year wonder?)
Hampton (WHAT?)
Granted, the Braves have some depth, and it’s a much better staff than the garbage the Phillies are putting on the hill, but there are too many questions, whereas the Mets staff is rock solid. Not even close.
The Mets staff is not “rock solid,” sir. Pedro says he’s in the best shape of his life every spring, Maine needs to prove his 2nd half of 2007 was an aberration, Perez needs to work on his consistency, and I’m not even going to touch that 5th starter issue.
The Mets have a good staff and have the best pitcher in baseball (arguably) to anchor it. But they will definitely hit some rough patches.
The Braves also have a good staff. Though not as talented as the mets, it’s close, and it’s MUCH deeper. If Smoltz can give them another 200 innings, the Braves staff will rival the Mets.
I would have picked the Braves to win the division had the Mets not acquired Santana (you cannot underrate the importance of that acquisition, Coach), and had Smoltz not just experienced shoulder soreness (if he’s hurt, it will sink the Braves).
I could totally be wrong, though. The Braves are a good team.
Another thing to remember is that the Mets’ bullpen is much better and deeper than Atlanta’s, and that there are a lot of long men in it that can give New York quality starts if necessary. Don’t underestimate the depth of the Mets staff as a whole, McFleece.
Good point about Santana. He lifts not only the pitching staff, but the overall morale of the team significantly. The Mets are BY FAR the most hungry team in the majors after the debacle, and that, combined with the fact that they are a slightly better team talent-wise than the Braves and are far superior to the Phillies, should bring them the division by a few more games than most people are giving them. Remember, the 2006 team won 97 games, and I like the 2008 team better than that one.
The Mets staff is rock solid relative to the rest of baseball. You have to put things in perspective. You can’t name me five teams with better pitching staffs than the Mets.
And one more thing: how are the 2008 Braves that much better than the 2007 Braves, who finished all alone in third? I don’t see much difference, except for that the pitching is slightly deeper and center field is severely downgraded.
Omar,
Come back to me, here. Figueroa is junk. “Hottest pitcher in baseball” is not accurate. Come on now…
Wow…what a homer.
1) “The Mets are BY FAR the most hungry team in the majors after the debacle.”
Ummm, how does that even make sense? They lost because they don’t have the killer instinct. Their manager is always aloof and clueless, their $100m centerfielder makes a guy like JD Drew look passionate. Wright and reyes just care about getting their drink on.
2) “there are a lot of long men in it that can give New York quality starts if necessary.”
are you f&cking serious???
And then you have braves fans using ST stats to justify themselves? This is just too much.
Phillies 95 wins
braves 90 wins
nats 81 wins
mets 80 wins
marlins 70 wins
Utley, just when we were close to naming Coach the biggest homer of the three of us, you say that load of crap. Wow. I’m gonna quote you now.
1) “They lost because they don’t have the killer instinct.”
That’s funny. They lost because they were tired, burnt out, and had a crappy attitude. There was no excuse for the debacle. However, you can’t honestly sit here and tell me that Johan Santana doesn’t completely erase all of that. That team is hungry, and they want it more than anyone.
2) [responding to why the Mets are hungry] “Ummm, how does that make sense?”
It makes perfect sense, you idiot. When a team loses something that is rightfully theirs, they get angry. That anger fuels them to play twice as hard. Common sense. Carlos Beltran displayed some of it when he talked back to Silly Jimmy. Oh wait, he was making fun of him. Oh well.
3) “Their $100m CF makes a guy like JD Drew look passionate.”
Carlos Beltran has plenty of passion; he just doesn’t have to show it. He (unlike JD Drew) gets results. I could take a cheap shot at your injury-prone $85m 2B, but I won’t, because he gets results.
4) “Wright and Reyes just care about getting their drink on.”
This coming from a member of the most drunken fan base in sports. Not worth responding to.
Your standings are a load of crap. I bet you can’t even name a Nationals pitcher without having to look it up. Get past your homerism and at least give the Mets 90 wins or so. If you’re incapable of doing that, then you should stop playing hooky and go back to the 7th grade science class you’re missing.
Biscuit, did you watch any of Figgy in the Caribbean Series? He was lights out. He’s been phenomenal this spring as well. It’s all about “what have you done for me lately?”
you are the biggest homer i’ve ever come across. the mets are a bunch of prima donnas. face it. when they’re winning (which they should with that yankee payroll), everything is great with them. but then they start losing and they become a group of “not my fault” individuals. where was the leadership last year? there was none, and you paid for it. is johan santana going to change that? i think not.
now go call your mom and tell her to pick you up at the internet cafe.
Coach,
The Mets just beat the Braves in Spring Training, which you seem to think is a GREAT sign of what is to come….so there ya go. The Mets are clearly better.
This message board has turned into Homers Anonymous. I like it.
Not even anonymous, McFleece. Everyone is a full-blown homer. Why has the N.L. East portion of the predictions dominated the discussions, anyways?
Because the NL East has the best three-way rivalry in baseball. I love hating the Phillies and Braves, and I’m sure Coach and Utley feel the same about their respective teams’ rivals. In other news, I’m thinking about attending HA classes. The whole site could join me.
The NL East will be fun to watch for sure, but I have to comment on the AL East/Cenral. It’s a given the wildcard will emerge from the top three in these two divisions. However the only team to be a lock is the Detroit Tigers. I’ll explain myself.
The Tigers have had two straight extremely competetive years. They hung around until the finally week last season, despite the injuries of a pitching staff the pitched them to the WS the year before. Subtract Maroth from 06′ and the assortmant of youth last year and add Willis+health to get a better, more mature staff than the 06′ version. ( Insert Kenny Rogers Crack Here). Verlander is a star, and dont forget Bonderman and Willis are only 26, expiienced, and don’t have to through “limited” innings like the other PROSPECTS. All it would have taken to derail the BOSOX train last year is what happened to the Tigers, and what will get them this year: Injury.
Sorry. I meant THROW limited innings.
I meant throw not …you know.
So take the pitching of these 4 teams in that perspective. Now Cleveland had a good run with a solid line up. It is the same top to bottom. The Yanks have A-Rod of course, but with the exception of Cano, their A-ball guys are all in the mid-30’s decline. Boston is the hardest, pesky out in baseball, I just can’t see a repeat of sucess a few guys had last year. Add The future MVP to last years AL runner up, the AL’s best shortstop paired with the hardest gold glove out in baseball in Polonco. Throw in a guy named Granderson and a couple future Hall of Famers. What do you get? Det in 6 over either the Mets, the Phils, or the Braves I guess.
Great stuff guys - this will give us much to talk about all season. Plus you’re all on the record so we can ruin you as things play out.
Mr Fleece I’m a huge Pedro homer, I hope you’re right about that come-back player of the year.
C.M. Daily,
I am skeptical about Willis in the AL though….doesn’t that worry you as well?
Plus, check out our Tigers preview. Those young starters have logged A TON of innings. I am very concerened about injuries (especially Bondo and Verlander).
I have the Tigers barely missing the playoffs for both the reason McFleece cites and for this: they are an exact replica of the 2007 Mets. Okay, so the lineup’s a little better, and the bullpen’s a bit worse. But that’s the thing. You don’t make the playoffs with a leaky bullpen. It just doesn’t happen. Even the atrocious Philly pen pitched great down the stretch. Injuries to the starters and no bullpen will doom the Tigers, who may win 90 games and miss the playoffs.
the yankees will be very luck to finish third, maybe 10 games out of first. if the tampa bay pitchers come into their own this season, it’s possible the yanks will finish fourth. their kid pitchers have shown that they are far from ready. giambi is through. damon is right behind him. cano apparently just plays half a season. posada will never again have the year he had last season. as a team, this cast of high-priced talent is hitting about .200 with runners in scoring position. this is definitely a rebuilding year. it will interesting to see how the fans react to what it the worst yankee team in at least 12 years.
The Marlins will not keep this up the rest of the season. Unless they go out and get 2 Big Bats to Help Hanley and Jacobs. They need a better BP and another legit Starter
Rays may actually be for Real here. They have 4 Solid SP, a good deep BP and a offense that finally is meeting its potential..
There was an interesting article in a paper out of Phili the other day. It pointed out that the Marlins have won just three games so far against teams with winning records, and are also 8-1 against the Nationals, accounting for about a third of their victories so far.
On the other hand, The Rays have already completed three game series sweeps against the Angels and Red Sox, two of the AL’s best.
To be fair, I think the Braves were at .500 when that article was written. As of today, they’re one game over.