The 2008 Detroit Tigers: As Good As We Think?
Though one never knows what GM Dave Dombrowski has up his sleeve, I think it’s safe to say that all the major moves have been made in Mo-Town with respect to the 2008 Tiger roster. So why not take an early look at the 2008 Detroit Tigers? (Click here for other team outlooks).
Lineup:
CF: Curtis Granderson (L) - The 26 year old hit .302/.361/.552 last year with 23 HR’s and 26 SB’s. And his line after the all-star break was an incredible .326/.391/.557. If he can continue to show more patience - he averaged 3.98 pitches per PA in 2007 - and make more contact (he struck out 33 less times in 2007 than in the prior year), Granderson is going to make the jump to “star” level in 2008. Plus, he has the defense that is needed to play centerfield in Comerica Park. Expect huge numbers in 2008.
2B: Placido Polanco (R) - Polanco is an ideal 2-hole hitter as his career OBP is .350 and he’s never struck out more than 43 times in a season. Bottom line: he moves runners along. Expect him to come down from his 2007 line of .341/.388/.458, but he will continue to be a perfect complimentary player for this contender.
3B: Miguel Cabrera (R) - By far the largest fish acquired by any team this winter, Cabrera (only 24 years old) will bring his career line of .313/.388/.542 and 30+ HR’s per year to Detroit. Sure, his defense is horrendous, but Baseball Reference ranks his top comparable offensive player through age 24 as Hank Aaron. So I think Detroit will learn to deal with the bad defense.
RF: Magglio Ordonez (R) - The MVP runner up mashed last year (.363/.434/.595) and continues to make Dombrowski look like a genius for signing him to a 5-year deal in 2005. Expect the 33-year old to take a slight step back to earth in 2008, but he should still put up MVP-type numbers in this lineup.
DH: Gary Sheffield (R) - By now, you should be realizing the one serious flaw in this lineup - too many righties. That said, it would be a crime not to bat these three sluggers back-to-back. Sure, Sheff is nearing 40 years of age, but he’s still a threat to hit around .290 with 30 homers, and as a full-time DH, he should be less prone to injuries.
1B: Carlos Guillen (S) - Always underrated, the 32-year old is a career .290/.358/.450 hitter who shows decent pop. He’s perfect for this slot in the order as his stats are nearly identical from either side of the plate.
SS: Edgar Renteria (R) - Yes, he hit .332/.390/.470 for the Braves last year, but I’m still wary of his first stint in the American League back in 2005. I would have went after a more defensive oriented shortstop (Orlando Cabrera?), but this move was made early - way before the Cabrera trade - so I guess you can’t really fault Detroit for going this route.
LF: Jacque Jones (L) - If he can bring his .280/.329/.455 career line to this spot in the lineup, Detroit will be more than happy. Jones is a streaky player, though, and has a tendency to hack. Marcus Thames could see some time in this spot if Jones struggles.
C: Ivan Rodriguez (R) - Pudge was awful last year at the plate, hitting .281/.294/.420 with 11 homeruns. At this point, his defense and leadership are his only true assets - but he’s great at both. And that’s all he’ll have to do playing in this lineup. Any offense he provides will be a bonus.
Starting Pitching Rotation:
1) Justin Verlander (R) - He’s developed into a true ace, winning 18 games last year with a 3.66 ERA and 125 ERA+ (a stat that adjusts for ballparks and league averages, with 100 being average and anything higher being above average). However, the 24 year old has logged 408 innings over the last two seasons (including playoffs). The Tigers should consider limiting his innings more in 2008 before the Mark Prior comparisons start.
2) Jeremy Bonderman (R) -Bonderman started off strong last year but then had an ERA over 7 after the all-star break (hopefully you fleeced someone in your league with Bondo like I did). Like Verlander, the amount of innings this 25 year old has thrown should be a concern for Tigers fans.
3) Dontrelle Willis (L) - D-Train regressed last year, posting a horrendous 5.17 ERA for Florida. Maybe a change of scenery will spark him, but again, I worry about the arm stress for this 26 year old who has logged over 1,000 innings in his first 5 years in the Majors.
4) Kenny Rogers (L) - The 43 year old posted a 4.43 ERA in limited duty last season for Detroit but if he can stay healthy (and not throw any cameras), the Gambler should provide a nice veteran presence for this rotation.
5) Nate Robertson (L) - The 30 year old lefty followed up a promising 2006 with a mediocre 2007 and now his career ERA+ stands at 97 (slightly below average). Still, he’ll be adequate as a 5th starter.
Bullpen:
Bobby Seay, Zach Minor, Jason Grilli, Tim Byrdak and Fernando Rodney are expected to setup Todd Jones (4.26 ERA in 2007). Joel Zumaya is the wild card and may be out until July.
CONCLUSION:
On paper, the 2008 Tigers are clearly a top 2 or 3 team in all of baseball - maybe even the best. The lineup is tremendous, as nearly every player (except Jones and Pudge) gets on base at a decent clip and can go yard with the best. With soon to be superstar Curtis Granderson and Placido Polanco setting up the mashers in the middle of this lineup, I expect Detroit to score plenty of runs in 2008. The abundance of right-handed hitters in this lineup is not a huge concern for me because they are professional hitters who can handle tough right handed pitching. I do worry, however, about the health of players like Sheffield, Guillen, Pudge and even Renteria as they get a year older. It is for that reason that I think they should hang onto Brandon Inge and Marcus Thames, who provide a deep and valuable bench for Jim Leyland.
Regarding the pitching staff, the Tigers do have talent and depth. But the top 3 starters have simply thrown too many major league innings for their ages so I worry about potential visits from the likes of Dr. James Andrews (whenever you hear his name in an article about your team, you know your heart skips a beat). The 4th starter is 43 years old, and the 5th starter has had injury concerns of his own. As a result, I believe Jim Leyland needs to be extremely protective of his young arms so that they are fresh come September/October (I would have even taken a look at a guy like Brett Tomko for insurance). The bullpen is also a concern, as I’m not a big fan of Todd Jones as a closer and Joel Zumaya’s injury is too random to know how/if it will linger down the stretch.
That said, if the pitching staff can stay healthy, this team should win at least 95 games, and have a real shot at playing deep into October. Thoughts?
Filed under: Detroit Tigers, _Polls, _Team Outlooks (2008)
Its a good point about their pitching staff, but with the offense they boast they could even afford to get a little unlucky with the offense they boast. If I’m in the AL Central I’m trying to convince the O’s to drop me Chad Bradford as a weapon against that lineup. I shudder to think what this lineup will do against below average lefties.
Good point. That may be why CWS acquired Dotel today.
Bradford and BK Kim would be wise trade targets for AL Central teams.
The Tigers hitting line-up will win some games too make up there overrated pitching staff.They will be like the Yankees a great line-up that will get dominated against good pitching but great against bad pitching teams.Only Verlander is a lock.Like the Twins who only have Liriano who is coming off Tommy John.So say what you want the Tigers are not as good as you think.The Yankees has a as good line-up but with way better pitching.
The Tigers pitching has a higher “up-side” than New York’s though. Remember, Bonderman had a 7.38 era after the AS Break. Say he cuts that in half. And say Robertson, Rogers and Willis revert to 2006 form? They will win 100 games if that happens.
However, that is a large “if.”
No way…
I do not agree with you in Sheff…IF healthy(and that is a big if), he will hit .265 and take out 25 balls at his best. Renteria back to the American League? See him in his old Boston shape, good defence but no the player he was in the NL. Jones and Ivan are also big holes in that lineup. So talking about offence, after the 6th spot you have lot of IFs. And in the pitching side, the olny staters locked they have by fact are the first 2. Willis is a big question mark, Kenny will not give them more than 20 outings and that brings Robertson as a 4th stater and that is BAD.
Bullpen looks to me the same the whitesox had last year, a lot of risk and hole there…that took the Sox to a 5.XX ERA.
So the Central is NOT that clear. They can all stay healthy and that is not a 90 wins season because of the performance doubts i see in Sheff, Jones, Rodriguez, Renteria, Robertson, Kenny, Grilli, Todd Jones and Willis.
I remember how everybody predicted the Wsox to repeat in 2006, and they fall down so easy that the stars they had in that pitching staff vanished in a heart beat and that can happen to the complete tigers pitching staff if they don’t perform this 2008 in the way they MUST to back up that defence.
ofence i mean
I’m not saying the Central is “clear” George. There could be as many as three teams that win between 90 and 100 games in that division.
I just think the Tigers have a great chance at winning 95 games this year. And most of the doubts that you site - Renteria, Jones, the Pitching Staff - are indeed expressed in the article. But all in, they have a pretty tremendous ballclub.
[…] MLB Fleece Factor wrote the Tigers could win 95 games and has the potential to be the top team in baseball. […]
The Tigers have a winning culture established as oppose to where the Marlins were headed, I think you will see the best of Dontrelle Willis this season. If Kenny Rogers returns to form, the only question mark for this team will be the bullpen, and whether Joel Zumaya can get healthy, and take the closer’s role from Todd Jones.
tigers are going to be balling!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
If Magglio’s average come back to his career rate with last seasons’ walks / extra base hits he’s OPS would be at .928 , that’s great but not exactly MVP material in most recent seasons for a corner outfielder.
Edgar Rentaria’s career line is .291 /.349/ .407 , Sean Casey (the guy he replaces in the lineup ) last year was .296 /.353 /.393 , I think Rentaria is the better bet going foward but if your expecting a massive upgrade from Casey last year that’s probably not realistic. and he’s as old as Guillen, how much longer his D holds up is questionable. it’s going to be better than the likes of Jeter or Guillen, but how much?
Granderson is a very very good player, but the chances of anyone repeating 23 triple feats is next to impossible, yes he’s skill set and park makes him a bigger triple threat than most. but also realize that no player has back to back years with 20+ triple since … maybe i missed someone here but the first one i can see is Sam Crawford… who did in nearly A CENTURY AGO! (1913 and 1914 !)
Miguel is clearly a mega upgrade . but note that a lot of their guys are going to come back down or their clear age regression continue .
I wouldn’t bet on them to lead the league in scoring .. they might, but i don’t see them as a clear favorite over the Yankees.
As for upside in pitching, i’d think it’s the other way around. the Yankees have some crazy upside in Hughes and Chamberlian, but their risk and volitility is a lot higher than anyone on the Tigers save oldie Kenny Rogers (who have Mike Mussina to buddy up with anyway) Verlander’s effectiveness last year was virtually indentical to Wang (same ERA+) but he’s obviously much more likely to improve than Wang . Pettitte is probably a better bet than Robertson. and Rogers vs Mussina is a real wash that could go either way.
That leaves us with Bonderman and Willis vs Hughes and Chamberlian. as the upside match up. I think the Yankees win there (not by a ton though) but their risk is higher. even if Bonderman / Willis doesn’t seriously rebound they’d still most likely cug out 170 - 200 innings of ok performances. the inning caps on the youngsters alone leaves them beat there.
On the other hand, the Yankees also have Ian Kennedy and their farm system is much better off at this point. particularly in the pitching department in the upper level. They clearly have a much better shot at recieving unexpected performance and/or survive injuries .
RollingWave, having seen Ian Kennedy pitch in person several times, I can tell you that he’s horrendously overrated. Willis’s upside is 20 wins, which has been proven. Jeremy Bonderman can only get better. Even with four brilliant starts, Hughes’s ERA was 4.46, which tells you that he had four awful starts as well. I’d take Bonderman-Willis anyday.
I think the Tigers will finish second, only because their pitching staff doesn’t even come close to Cleveland’s:
Sabathia > Verlander
Carmona > Bonderman
Westbrook = Willis
Byrd > Robertson
Laffey if Rogers gets hurt)
Cleveland is the best team in the American League because they have two aces. Not many teams have one.
Laffey > Rogers if Rogers gets hurt. I don’t know what happened there.
Um, the Indians are NOT the best team in the AL. Did you mean the AL Central? Because I’m pretty sure a rotation of Beckett, Schilling, Dice-K, Buccholz, Lester/Wakefield is better than the Indians rotation. Not to mention, they are the defending champs (”proof is in the pudding”.. cheesy, I know).
Sorry Old Navy King, did I forget Central? I guess I must have. I’m sorry if you thought that I believed that the Indians were the best in the AL. Until they don’t win the World Series and someone else does, the Red Sox are clearly the best in the AL and in baseball. But the Indians are a close second.
And I put both the Angels and the Yankees above the Tigers. They haven’t proven anything yet. Let’s see in Miggy can mash on the likes of Carmona, Beckett and Lackey.
*if
Yeah, the AL race is gonna be wild this season. Looking forward to it so bad!
I would say Detroit is better than LA of A and NY of the B.
I’m not sure what you see Ian Kennedy as. he’s overrated if you think he’s a front line starter. but a pretty good back rotation starter he probably is. and we’re talking about filling in the rotation if someone gets hurt here. Detroit is looking at Zach Miner as their 6th guy. Kennedy is at worest comparable to Miner anyway. and the Yankees have several other solid pitching prospect in the high minors anyway where as Detroit traded away most of their’s
As for Willis, it’s ironic that you knock on Kennedy (who’s downfall is obviously the lack of nasty stuff despite dominating in each level so far) but think Willis is a sure bet. he hasn’t been that good for 2 years now. the periphals are declining and he was never a big time heat thrower to begin with (career K/9 under 7 but had exllent control when he was on pre 05 ) and looks like he lost a notch in 06 / 07 .
according to his player card.( http://tinyurl.com/yrwxk3 )
he threw two variety of a fastball last year. primarily the cut fastball. and the cut fastball average didn’t even reach 91 mph. (which made it virtually the same as Ian Kennedy ) he did throw another (4-seamer ? it ran like a sinker though) harder at 93 mph but he only threw it around 5% of the time.)
As for Bonderman, the biggest fear is that his 07 look almost indentical to his 05 . making 06 looking more like the outlier. yeah both of these guys are young and could rebound. but it’s not really as sure fired as you would think. Oliver Perez took two abosalutely brutal years to rebound, and when he did he’s 07 run was still significantly less impressive than his 05 season. a guy like Steve Avery never came back up(and he happens to be D-trains top age comp right now according to BR.. oh oh). Javier Vazquez took 3 seasons to really come back up etc… pitchers having off years at a young age is much scarier than hitters.
Also, comparing the Tigers to the Yankees is obviously the most reasonable, as their team makeup is very very similar (high caliber offense but some questinable players, questionable pitching but plenty of young talent with good ceilings mixed in with oldies trying to hold on)
I’m not trying to say that Willis and Bonderman will suck in 08, they might. they might also win 40 games between them and/or challenge for the Cy Young. the issue though is that looking at their comparables in the majors don’t suggest that they have a very good chances of significant rebound back to their top level.
one has to espically consider that Willis is moving to a tougher league and a tougher park. on the bright side though he’s also did well outside of Dolphin Stadium and in interleague play. and he’ll have capable fielders behind him in Detroit instead of the hilariously horrendous group that the Marlins had (seirously, Cabrera / Ramereiz / Uggla were all the top 3 worest fielder in their position yikes! not to meantion no real CF in a big park and a LF that was converted from catcher )
Who knows, it’ll be fun to watch at least.
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