Johan Santana Rumor Update: A Twins Self-Fleece?
There are certainly no seismic shifts in the status of the Johan Santana trade rumors, but we do have this from the St. Paul Pioneer Press: “Word within baseball circles is that offers by the Yankees (no more Phil Hughes) and Red Sox are diminishing by the week. Best bet now for a trade of the two-time Cy Young Award winner appears to be with the Mets in a deal that would not include fast-rising hitter Fernando Martinez.”
This is in line with our train of thought (backed up by Nick Cafardo) that says that the Red Sox and Yankees are secretly hoping the Twins ship Santana to the Mets, so that the two AL East teams can keep their young stars and have Santana out of the AL at the same time. It appears as though once the first team backed off a little (in this case, the Yankees by taking Hughes off the table), the other followed suit, thus making the Mets the favorites, who now may not even need to include Fernando Martinez to close the deal. A deal with the Mets would presumably include Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, Kevin Mulvey and Philip Humber.
At this point, it’s clear the Twins may have fleeced themselves by not jumping on either the Yankees or Red Sox winter meetings offers in which they were receiving one of Phil Hughes, Jon Lester or Jacoby Ellsbury along with other top prospects. Therefore, unless things change, Twins GM Bill Smith should consider hanging on to Santana and hoping better offers come in before the July 31st trade deadline. The wild card, of course, is Santana’s veto power which he may be able to use to force a trade before the season starts.
Of course, all it takes is one change of heart and phone call from either the Yanks or Sox to change the status of these rumors completely. Stay tuned.
Filed under: Boston Red Sox, Minnesota Twins, New York Mets, New York Yankees
Who said Hughes isn’t on the table.Remember everyone said Reyes wasn’t on the table but when Mike Francesa of Mike and the Maddogg called the Mets they said every deal that was talked to the Twins included Reyes just last week.And Kennedy was being asked.
I don’t believe Bloggers or reporters.Because I believe the Mets might have the Edge but the Yankees will get the last call.
Hank Steinbrenner implied that Hughes was off the market:
http://mlbfleecefactor.com/2008/01/14/yankees-out-of-santana-race-for-good/
And that St. Paul reporter wrote the same. Whether it’s true or not (and I don’t blame you for not believing Hank) is another matter. We are just reporting the rumors. And the rumors we have reported regarding Santana come from respected journalists, not bloggers.
Wait, Adriene, you believe Mike Francesca over a reporter coming out of Minnesota??? Francesca is possibly the WORST local source for rumors. He’s infamous for twisting quotes and taking them miles out of context. Meanwhile all the writers at the Star Tribune have been saying the Mets have viable offers that don’t include Reyes. Plus there’s been zero indication the Yankees have even made an official offer since the Winter Meetings, which is still where all the Hughes talk goes back to.
I don’t trust the Hankees. You never know with them. The Red Sox aren’t a factor. If they truly wanted Santana, they would’ve gotten him at the Winter Meetings when they were the lone bidder. The Mets are clearly the favorites for Johan’s services.
Bill Smith got greedy. He could’ve had Jacoby Ellsbury, Phil Hughes, or Jon Lester, but instead now he’s got Carlos Gomez. It’s priceless.
Yeah the Yankees are still the team that scares me. I bet the Sox would still do the Lester deal too, but they’re not upping any offers. And important factor in what these teams might be willing to give up is the luxury tax. The Mets could afford Santana and still come in well below the cutoff. The Yankees will be way above it without a contract like that, and the Sox were above it last year too.
Really what this all comes down to is the Twins scouting, and how much Bill Smith is willing to trust them. They’ve got an excellent track record, and picking up four or five players, you’ve got to believe they probably see something in the back end guys too. If they don’t like Vasquez or Masterson or Humber they won’t bite. We can be pretty sure they like Phil Hughes, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jon Lester, Carlos Gomez, Fernando Martinez, and Deolis Guerra. But what are the chances that all six of those guys become all-stars, let alone successful big leaguers? There are varying degrees of probability with all of them, but the difference in where they are in their development and where they could one day be isn’t as significant as its made out to be. Here’s the reasoning:
To contend in the division, assuming Santana is traded, the first thing the Twins would need is someone to eat those innings (especially if Nathan is traded too). Asking Phil Hughes or Jon Lester to do so would be foolish. Hughes should probably be capped around 135, 145 would be pushing it. Lester probably around 150-160. Watching those numbers pass by could be incredibly problematic. You don’t take that kind of risk with your prized investment.
So lets say they go with Lester or Hughes and decide to sign Livan Hernandez for 1 year $5 million. Pretty smart move given the market. There could now be enough upside in the rest of the rotation to put together an average staff. Now they need a CF, or all that will be for naught. Kubel, Cuddyer, and Young would be a horrid defensive outfield. You might have the option of going with Casilla and Everett up the middle to try and shake that out, but I don’t think that outfield will provide enough of a punch to justify that (it would have to be a ton even if Casilla breaks out). But you need a DH anyway, so if you can why not get the extra defense if you can? Melky Cabrera and Coco Crisp don’t exactly fit the bill of an offensive upgrade but they’d certainly be defensive upgrades. I still don’t think they’d have enough offense to back a rotation aced by Livan Hernandez. Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Gomez would qualify defensively too, but they’d also have the potential to be offensive upgrades. The problem? If they want Lester or Hughes, they aren’t getting Gomez or Ellsbury.
Now, Guerra’s too far away to consider, but this is one of those instances where if the Twins scouts like Kevin Mulvey and Philip Humber enough, plus getting Guerra and Gomez, it could be too might be too much to pass up. Gomez has much more upside than Cabrera, probably more than Ellsbury too, but he probably needs a bit more refinement before he gets pushed at the big league level. He could be a factor in 2008 but its not a guarantee. As for Mulvey and Humber, they may not have the upside of Hughes or Lester, but there would be less hesitation about pushing them to 180 innings. If one or both had a good showing in the spring and stuck with the club, they both pitched enough last season to conceivably reach a full MLB season type workload. They were both over 145 IP. Mulvey’s 23, Humber’s 25. And then even though every scout in the US will say Guerra’s probably the gem of the package, to the average baseball fan he’ll be the sleeper that comes up three years down the road.
The only other pitcher mentioned who went more than 145 IP last year was Jeff Marquez. He’s a lot like Kevin Mulvey with more wins and weaker peripherals. But, if the Twins scouts aren’t enamored with Mulvey and Humber, and they are with Marquez, and (for whatever reason) Cabrera, they should certainly take the Yanks package. Its unlikely they get any kind of an immediate horse SP from the Sox, but they might feel Masterson is yet to bloom and Lowry is a big league SS. My guess is if they were really confident about that and the deal with Ellsbury was on the table, that would have gotten done, and they’d have picked the bare bones of the late offseason SP market trying to find someone who could absorb some punishment.
Wow, Mark, nice work. That was some post there.
Great points on the Yanks and Mets offers. Regarding the Red Sox offer:
I think Minny looks at Masterson as a potential closer - perhaps a replacement for Nathan.
I also think they like Lester just as much as Hughes, and why not? The guy dominated in the world series. Rockies players actually said he was the 2nd best pitcher on the Sox. And he wasn’t even fully recovered from the cancer.
Lowrie is looked as like a potential Pedroia.
These Red Sox prospects are so overhyped it’s ridiculous. How many people here have actually seen Justin Masterson pitch or Jed Lowrie hit and field? I’d be shocked if anyone has.
Now, I haven’t either, but let’s look at it this way. The Sox have the fan base and the national attention where they can afford to overhype their prospects. They almost have to if they want to get below the luxury tax because they can’t keep bringing in guys like J.D. Drew on 5-year, $70 million deals. They’ve hyped Jacoby Ellsbury to the point where there is seemingly no need for Drew or Coco Crisp, a perfectly capable outfielder, to be on that team. Same with Julio Lugo and Jed Lowrie, or Hideki Okajima and Justin Masterson, or Curt Schilling and Clay Bucholz. The list goes on. It’s all a ploy to get the BoSox under the luxury tax.
Don’t think the Yankees haven’t done it, either. When they were drafted together in 2004, people said that Philip Humber had nastier stuff than Phil Hughes. They said they’d take Humber’s curve anyday, and that he was a surefire ace, whereas Hughes was a wild card. Now look; Hughes is hyped as the prospect with the best curveball in the majors. Humber can still pitch, my friends. There is no evidence that he can’t be as good as Hughes. I’ve seen Ian Kennedy pitch in person. Totally overrated. His fastball doesn’t move, his changeup isn’t good enough to make up for it, and his breaking stuff needs work.
Even the Mets overhype to some extent. Carlos Gomez really isn’t that great of a hitter, although he should fill out and start mashing 20 HRs and 80 RBIs eventually while still batting .285 with 60-70 SBs. I’ve seen Kevin Mulvey pitch in person, and he got shelled. In AA. Humber is definitely a better catch for the Twins. Deolis Guerra may be the real deal, though. He’s only 185 pounds at 6′5″, and should fill out to throw around 98 MPH on his fastball.
Overall, I think the Twins don’t win out on any deal they take, although the Red Sox deal would be their best bet. Jon Lester can pitch, and Crisp is a very good and still underrated player, but my question is if they’re lower-tier (Lowrie, Masterson) is better than that of the Mets (Humber, Mulvey, etc.).
My guess is Johan Santana ends up with the Mets for Gomez, Guerra, Humber, Mulvey, and Joe Smith.
P.S. As a Mets fan, the perfect deal would be:
Mets get: Santana, Joe Nathan
Twins get: Fernando Martinez, Gomez, Guerra, Humber, Mulvey, and Mike Carp.
I wouldn’t call Masterson or Lowrie overhyped. No one is really claiming them to be “studs.”
I’ve seen Lowrie and think he can be pretty good. Personally, I’d consider starting him over Lugo if Lugo starts off cold in April. Lowrie’s D at SS is not great, but neither is Lugo’s, and I think Lowrie can be a better hitter.
In Minnesota, he could start at 2nd or 3rd, or backup both for a year while gaining 300 at bats.
Masterson, as I said, may fare better in the pros as a closer. (I believe he was a dominant closer before being drafted). And again, no one is really overhyping this guy in my opinion.
PS: Good point on Humber v. Hughes. But you have to admit that RIGHT NOW, Hughes is the much safer bet. No?
Hughes is definitely the safer pick. I don’t think that can really be argued.
I concur. Considering he just about no hit the Rangers, but then
again that feat proved to be pretty attainable by several pitchers last year, and realized by one, but I digress, Hughes is no doubt way ahead of Humber, and I do agree that Ian Kennedy is way overhyped, most notably by Jim Callis of Baseball America, because he is a Yankee.
Tyler, are you claiming that Callis hypes up Yankee prospects specifically? I don’t think that is true.
Lester isn’t a bad pitcher, but he isn’t all that great either. Looking at his post season play is such a small sample size that it isn’t even worth looking at.
The health issue with Lester is and should be a major concern. Cancer is a horrible disease and while it may go into remission, is it ever REALLY cured?
What I don’t understand is why would the Mets offer, that has no major league ready player in the mix, be better than either of the Yankees or Red Sox offerings. Both the later teams had 2 major league players up for offer. Prospects might be able to come up and be fine, but quite often they flop and go nowhere.
Looking at the risks for the Twins, the Mets offer is the most risky.
It also seems that when ever these trade talks go on, that Santana is the last consideration being thought of. While he hasn’t communicated his full desires, which is smart of him, where he wants to play or doesn’t want to play may render the whole thing moot.
BBallDude, since when is Joe Nathan on the table?
As a Mets fan, I’m not a huge fan of a deal that basically gives up the entire farm system.
Josh,
Normally, I’d agree with you. But Santana makes the Mets the best team in the NL and still leaves them with a young core that is capable of competing whie the farm system is rebuilt over the next 3 or 4 years.
So I think the Mets should be all over this one.
The fact is that out of “the farm” they’d be giving up, 1 or 2 of the 5 will go on to have sustained major league success, if I were the Mets I take my chances and get the best pitcher in baseball on my team.
Josh, Joe Nathan isn’t technically “on the table,” but he can be had at the right price. And I think the top six Mets prospects is a good enough price. Think about it. Santana-Nathan-Wagner. That’s a win every fifth night. Then you throw in capable penners like Heilman and Feliciano, and you’ve got the best pitching, rotation and bullpen, in baseball. And pitching wins championships.
FYI from the tundra. “Twins-fest” is being held at the Metrodome this weekend here in Minnesota. For those who don’t know or have something similar to it, it’s like a sports card/ memorabilia show with activities for kids and adults on the dome field… batting practice… fielding practice…player interviews…etc. The event is highlighted by signature sessions with Twins players of the past, present, and future. It’s very popular here. It would be a huge breach of etiquette for the Twins to trade Santana until after this event.
I retract that last statement
Polhad has his new stadium, raised ticket prices and refuses to pay his players what they deserve. What the hell does he care? I fully expect Mauer, Morneau, Nathan, Cuddyer, and Santana to be traded tomorrow….
What does Polhad know about etiquette?