Q & A: Baseball America’s Jim Callis
MLB Fleece Factor recently had the privilege of conducting a question and answer session with Jim Callis of Baseball America. Mr. Callis is a relative prodigy on all things prospect-related. He is also a frequent chat contributer over at ESPN.com. Each year, Jim Callis, along with other Baseball America contributers, produce the “bible” of baseball prospects, appropriately titled the Prospect Handbook. It is a must-read for every baseball enthusiast looking to learn more about their teams farm system, and those of their rivals. As an aside, Callis is a huge fan of the Fox hit show “24″, playing Madden, and obviously Jessica Alba.
OK, on to the questions…
Fleece Factor: Please rank all the prospects/players from the Yanks/Mets/Sox offers, in order from best to worst, for Johan Santana?
Jim Callis: I’ll split those guys into three tiers (in order within the tier). The first tier is Hughes, Ellsbury, Lester, Martinez, Guerra. The second tier is Cabrera, Crisp, Masterson, Lowrie, Gomez. The third tier is Mulvey, Marquez, Humber. I think the best player in any of the rumored offers is Hughes; the best potential upside but also the most risk are the Mets deals because Martinez and Guerra are so far away and Gomez’ skills haven’t caught up with his tools; and the best deal(s) from my perspective are the Red Sox offers. I’m just not sold that Melky Cabrera is anything special. I’d take his bat over Crisp’s, but Crisp is a far better defender.
Fleece Factor: How would you “fix” the draft, so that big-market clubs didn’t gobble up all the talent?
Jim Callis: I’d stop emphasizing slotting. Rather than discourage teams from spending, I’d encourage them to spend on the draft. The small-revenue clubs can’t compete with the big-revenue clubs for the best free agents or trade commodities, but they can spend a pick and plunk down their money and sign the best draftees just as easily. The average team spends $5 million on the draft–double that investment and you could haul in an additional 5-10 quality prospects every year in the draft. They wouldn’t all pan out, but enough would to make a difference.
Fleece Factor: Why can’t draft picks be traded, like in the NFL or NBA? Do you think this will be allowed in the near future?
Jim Callis: I’m not sure why there was an initial prohibition on trading picks when the draft started in 1965, and baseball has chosen to maintain that status quo. I’ve heard arguments on both sides of this issue that make sense. Proponents say it would allow teams that don’t want to go over slot for an elite talent to get better value for their pick than just taking a lesser slot guy. But opponents say it would allow agents to drive players to big-revenue teams more easily.
Fleece Factor: Who are your top 5 position prospects and top 5 pitching prospects, in order, and when do you expect them to be “full-time” contributors in the majors?
Jim Callis: The hitters would be Reds OF Jay Bruce (full-time in 2008), Rays 3B Evan Longoria (2008), Royals SS Mike Moustakas (2010, and he’ll move off SS by then), Cardinals OF Colby Rasmus (mid-2008) and Blue Jays OF Travis Snider (by the end of 2009). The pitchers would be Red Sox RHP Clay Buchholz (2008), Yankees RHP Joba Chamberlain (2008), Dodgers LHP Clayton Kershaw (by the end of 2008), Reds RHP Homer Bailey (2008) and Rockies LHP Franklin Morales (2008).
Fleece Factor: What are the top-5 farm systems in baseball today?
Jim Callis: In the just-released Prospect Handbook, we stacked them up like this: Rays, Red Sox, Reds, Rangers, Yankees. I think the Rays and Red Sox are a cut above the other three, with a lot of star-caliber talent and depth.
*Note: the Prospect Handbook can be found here.
Fleece Factor: I know you are on the Rays 2010 bandwagon… what do you expect their roster to look like then? Do you think they can really compete with financial juggernauts like the Yankees and Red Sox?
Jim Callis: I think it will be a mostly homegrown club, which is why they’ll be able to compete. They’ve done a good job with most of their very early first-round picks, and they’ve done well lower in the draft too. I could see their lineup looking something like this: C–John Jaso, 1B–Carlos Pena, 2B–Akinori Iwamura, 3B–Evan Longoria, SS–Reid Brignac, LF–Carl Crawford, CF–Rocco Baldelli or Desmond Jennings, RF–B.J. Upton, DH–Jonny Gomes. The rotation will be some combination of Scott Kazmir, David Price, Matt Garza, Jake McGee, Wade Davis and Jamie Shields. They have a lot of young talent in Tampa Bay.
Fleece Factor: What percentage of prospects at high-A ball or higher would you say actually lives up to their hype and contributes in the bigs?
Jim Callis: Well, those are two different things. I’d say most of the highly touted guys at the upper three levels of the minors at least contribute in the majors. As far as living up to their hype, that’s a great question. The longer I’ve been at Baseball America, the more realistic (or cynical) I’ve gotten about prospects. As good as they look, some will fall by the wayside.
Fleece Factor: How do you normally gather your information on a given prospect?
Jim Callis: I try to do as much research beforehand as possible, and we usually have reports going back before guys even entered pro ball. Then I try to talk to as many people as possible. I’m more of analyst than a scout — I don’t spend all my waking hours at games.
Fleece Factor: Is Jessica Alba still #1 on your list?
Jim Callis: Always!
Fleece Factor: Who is your biggest surprise team for 2008? And what team do you think will win the World Series?
Jim Callis: My playoff picks in late January would be the Red Sox, Tigers, Indians (wild card), Angels, Phillies, Cubs (though I’m tempted to pick the Brewers), Dodgers and Diamondbacks (wild card). Not sure there are any surprises there, unless you count me having the Yankees barely miss the playoffs. Boston looks like the favorite at this point.
We would like to thank Mr. Callis for all his wonderful insight, and just taking the time out of his crazy schedule to chat with us. It’s very much appreciated. And all of us here at Fleece Factor hope our readers enjoyed the piece, because we did!
Filed under: _Interviews
Picking the Dodgers and Phils is ridiculous. I do agree that the Shanks will barely miss the playoffs. The D’Backs and Mets should win their divisions without much trouble, and the Rox, Pads, Braves and Cubs (I’m taking the Brewers) should contend for the wild card. LA will be lucky to finish .500, and the Phillies are about an 84-win team right now.
The Dodgers might be floating around or a few games above .500 until around midseason, when the kid Clayton Kershaw will be called up, propelling them into the playoffs and a run at the World Series. That’s the scenario I like at least.
Great chat BTW.
THe Red Sox have the second best Farm system?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
I don’t think you can call the Phils an 84 win team. I don’t think you can call them a 90 win team, but they won 88 and 89 the last two years and I feel like they haven’t really changed much. They’re catching the peaks for Howard, Utley, Rollins, Myers, etc. Even role players like Victorino and Jenkins are probably already at their peaks, but not particularly likely to fall off yet. Watching Rowand walk was a five win change at most, adding Lidge and moving Myers back to the rotation should essentially negate that. It will take 90 wins for the Mets or Braves to win the NL East. Its certainly possible.
Yeah, fantastic Q&A session guys. Always great to read about your team’s future.
Adrian-Retire21, I can tell that you are a big Shankee fan from your posts, and I hate to agree with you, but in this instance I feel I must. The Red Sox farm system, like that of the Shanks and the Mets, is extremely overhyped. Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson need to be on the third tier.
Mark, the Phils are an 84-win team because they don’t have a bullpen, Rollins can’t get any better, their rotation is worse than ours (the Mets) and they have depth questions all over. The Mets are a 92-win team, and the Braves are (I hate to admit) an 88-win team.
And remember, Hamels and Myers are both locks for a DL stint. Kendrick hasn’t ptiched a full season yet. The fifth starter spot is a wash. The Phils have so many gaping holes, but just because they somehow won their crappy division on a fluke doesn’t mean they can’t go 84-78 the next year. Look at the Cardinals or the A’s.
How is the Mets’ farm system over-hyped? It is well known that they are currently struggling in this area, big time. They are very “top-heavy”. You have Gomez, Guerra, and FMart as “top guys”. Everyone else is viewed as 2nd tier or below. Pelfrey’s stock has dropped, we all know Milledge’s stock was down the tubes…no one is very high on Humber anymore, and Mulvey is viewed as a potential # 3 or 4 starter. That’s pretty much it.
That’s partially why a lot is being made of their attempts to land Santana. They’d be “trading the farm” for him, literally. They would have nothing left.
The only people who would say the Mets have a real good farm system would have to be up for a Homer award.
The Reds, Yankees, and Red Sox will drop out of the top 5 farm systems about 2 or 3 months into the season when the likes of Homer Bailey, Jay Bruce, Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, Joba Chamberlain, and Ian Kennedy lose their “prospect” status. Now those teams are “top heavy”.
Great call, Tyler. I agree with you about the Red Sox and Yankees, but not the Reds. They still have Votto and Cueto, among others. The Mets farm system is very deep. They have tons of guys that will make mild ripples in the majors. Mulvey is terrible, Gomez is slightly overrated, and Martinez still hit .272. He’s not god. Or Jay Bruce.
The Rangers no. 1 prospect on the other hand is a 19 year old shortstop, who will be debuting in AA next year. Very interesting kid…
Mike Hindman, my favorite baseball writer, broke down the top 5 infield prospects in the Rangers system, incidentally the No 5 infield prospect is Joaquin Arias, the “player to be named later” in the Alex Rodriguez trade, whom the Rangers hand picked over Robinson Cano, which hurts to think about.
http://rangersfarmreport.mlblogs.com/rangersfarmreport/2008/01/prospect_previe_7.html
Are you alright?
Not sure if there was sarcasm there, but if you were saying FMart is bad because he hit .272 as an 18 or 19 year old, then that is very unfair.
My comment is awaiting moderation…..??
Sorry there Tyler. We had to increase our spam blocking because we’ve been getting crushed with ads and other links. It’s a work in progress, bear with us.
Thanks pal.
lol, understandable.
“I think the Rays and Red Sox are a cut above the other three, with a lot of star-caliber talent and depth.”
As a Sox fan, I’m wondering who their star-caliber talent is beyond Buchholz, Ellsbury and maybe Lars Anderson. Am I missing anyone?
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