After a successful 2006 season run, finishing in 2nd place in the AL East over the Boston Red Sox, the Blue Jays battled a multitude of injuries and fell back into the middle of the division last season. With stud lefty closer B.J. Ryan hopefully healthy again, and with a completely new left-side of the infield (Rolen, Eckstein), the Blue Jays will once again be looking to climb up that monster hill, and over the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees in the standings. The road will clearly not be easy, as the financial power of the top-half of the AL East is immense. The Blue Jays do have a solid stable of starters to throw out on the rubber each day, and a number of capable bats in their lineup, and a tough bullpen (with a healthy Ryan), so anything is possible. 

LINEUP:

SS: David Eckstein (R) - He comes over from the Cardinals, where he won a World Series just 2 seasons ago (also won one with Angels). Eckstein is known as a hustler, a guy who plays his heart out at all times, but doesn’t have the most size or talent. Hopefully his attitude is infectious to his new teammates. He will give you close to a .300 batting average with a .350 on-base percentage… not bad for a leadoff hitter. He will even swipe some bags (10 last season), but provides little to no power (only 30 career HR’s). And the guy almost NEVER strikes out, having only 22 K’s in 434 at-bats in 2007; he will put the ball in play. Eckstein also provides adequate defense at short, but is still a major decline from last year’s shortstop, John McDonald.

1B: Lyle Overbay (L)  - His stats fell off the cliff last season. After his 1st season in Toronto, where he hit .312 with 22 homers and 92 RBI, Overbay only managed to bat .240 with 10 HR’s and 44 RBI in 122 games last season. By the end of the season, he was platooning with Matt Stairs at first. He did, however, miss a month with a broken hand. I fully expect Overbay to bounce-back in 2008 to his average stats of a .280 batting average, with a .355-365 OBP. 20 home runs and 80 RBI are also certainly reasonable. His defense is tremendous too, as he boasted the top range factor among all MLB first baseman last season, despite his horrible work with the stick.

RF: Alex Rios (R) - An emerging star among major-league outfielders who is quickly becoming one of the top RF hitters in baseball. Rios had 74 extra-base hits in 2007, posting a line of .297/.354/.498, knocking in 85 runs, stealing 17 bases and scoring 114 runs. He should finally crack the 100 RBI mark in 2008 too with a full season in the #3 hole. In 2007, Rios posted the worst range factor among all major-league RF’s, but did still manage decent defense overall. But back to the dish, Rios kills left-handed pitching. In 145 AB’s last season, he hit a ridiculous .345/.422/.600 vs. southpaws.  I envision a truly “breakout” season for him in 2008… something like a .305 average, with 30 HR’s, 105 RBI and 20 SB’s. 

CF: Vernon Wells  (R) - After signing his mega 7-year, $126 million contract extension before the 2007 season, Wells bombed during the year. After 77 XB-hits, 106 RBI and a .303 BA in 2006, Wells followed that up with an unimpressive 56 XB-hits, 80 RBI and .245 BA this past season. Oh, and prior to signing that contract, he had just won his 3rd straight Gold Glove award. In 2007, he regressed on the defensive side as well. A shoulder injury had been bothering him, and you’d like to think it was that more than “indifference” after signing his new deal. I do expect Wells to regain his focus this offseason, and post stats in 2008 more respectible to his paycheck. Anything less than a .295/30/100 RBI year should be considered a disappointment for Jays fans. 

DH: Frank Thomas (R) - At 38, this dude can still mash at the plate, and he will look to add to his career total of 513 home runs. Last season, the “Big Hurt” hit .277 with 26 HR’s and 95 RBI, and a .377 OBP. Just a year before with the A’s, he belted 39 homers and drove in 114 runs in only 137 games. He too smashes lefty pitching, with a nasty 1.062 OPS against it. And while a .796 OPS against righties isn’t great, his .360 OBP against them is nothing to sneeze at. Bottom line, this guy can still handle a bat, and might be able to until the day he dies. Given his age, you might have expected a 2nd half slide for Thomas, but his batting average actually raised 55 points vs. the 1st half. Barring injury, there is no reason to expect anything but a .275/.370/.475 line, with 30 homers and 90+ runs batted in. By the way, Thomas’ career on-base percentage is an astounding .421! Wow.  

3B: Scott Rolen (R) - Probably the biggest move the team made this offseason, was acquiring him in the Troy Glaus trade. Rolen didn’t get along with Cardinals manager Tony La Russa, and that, along with his chronic bum shoulder, made his departure imminent. He even had surgery to remove scar tissue from his left shoulder late in the season, ending it early. Rolen has always been a feared hitter at the plate and has brought Gold Glove defense at the hot corner, but injuries have taken their toll on his body. In 112 games last season, he batted only .265 with 8 HR’s and 58 RBI… far removed from his .314/34/124 season with the Cards in 2004. But hopefully his latest surgery does the trick, and that shoulder stops causing him major discomfort. In this lineup, I can see a .285/25/85 season. Just imagine if he were playing next to McDonald on that left-side… would make for some amazing defense over there.

2B: Aaron Hill (R) - Had a “breakout” year in 2007, when he saw his power numbers increase dramtically. He went up from 6 HR’s and 50 RBI in ‘06, to 17 HR’s and 78 RBI in ‘07. He also smacked an impressive 47 doubles last season as well. Maybe more importantly, Hill is extremely durable, as he has averaged just about 158 games over the last 2 seasons. He came on strong in the 2nd half last year, batting .320 after the break. He also hit both righties and lefties very well. Not bad at all for a #7 hitter.

C: Gregg Zaun (S) - Zaun should get the bulk of games behind the plate for the Jays, with Rod Barajas getting his fair share. Even with a semi-low career batting average of .252 (hit .242 last season), Zaun’s career .344 on-base percentage is certainly more than adequate for a catcher and #8 hitter. He even has some pop in his bat, smacking 35 XB-hits in 2007 in 331 plate appearances.

LF: Reed Johnson (R) - Another platoon candidate with Matt Stairs, joining Mr. Overbay. I would assume this one to be the more frequent one. Johnson hit .319 back in 2006 with a .390 on-base percentage, but suffered mightily in the 2007, mostly do to a back injury and later surgery. He played in 79 games last season, managing only a .236 BA and .305 OBP. If back to normal health, I look for him to open the season as the starting LF. But Johnson was downright atrocious vs. lefties last season, batting a measly .202 (was .317 in 2006, however), so the team may go with Matt Stairs in left when facing a southpaw. Stairs hit .289 with a .396 OBP in ‘07 vs. lefties, but with little power. But Johnson would clearly give the team a more nimble player patrolling the outfield grass.

Bench: Matt Stairs (L) was a great surprise for the team in 2007, batting .289 with 21 homers and 64 RBI in 357 AB’s in left field and at first base. He was rewarded for his play this offseason with a new 2-year deal. He should continue to platoon in LF for Reed Johnson or at 1B for Overbay in 2008. Yet another option in left-field is younster Adam Lind (L), 24. He has had 350 major-leagues AB’s over the last 2 seasons, and has a .260 batting average and 13 home runs. He is ugly vs. left-handers, batting .194 against them last season, but provides the team with a power bat off the bench. Shortstop John McDonald (R), who signed a 2-year extension this offseason, provides the team with a Gold Glove qualtiy infielder who is capable of playing SS, 3B or 2B. In 2007, he led all AL shortstops in fielding percentage. But his career .240 BA and 8 total HR’s aren’t very inspiring. Another infield option is Marco Scutaro (R),who the team acquired in a trade with the Oakland A’s. Catcher Rod Barajas (R), who signed with the Jays this offseason after backing out of a deal with them the previous one, should see significant time behind the dish. Last season with the Phils, he hit .230, with 4 homers and 10 RBI in 122 plate appearances.

Prospect Watch: The team’s 1st round pick in 2006, Travis Snider (L), is supposed to be a legit power bat. He was picked out of high school, and is capable of playing either corner outfield spot, or even first base. But at 20 years of age, we shouldn’t be expecting anything from him in 2008.

STARTING ROTATION:

#1: Roy Halladay (R) - “Doc” is certainly a top-10 pitcher in all of baseball when he has all his pitches working. He is more of a groundball pitcher now, with a fastball, cutter, change and knuckle-curve, and works fast to batters. Halladay is 32-12 over the last 2 seasons, and had pitched at least 220 innings both times, with 11 complete games over the span. That is exactly what I’m looking for from my staff ace. He started out on fire in 2007, going 4-0 with a 2.28 ERA over his first 6 starts. Then, uncharacteristically, he gave up at least 7 ER’s in 3 of his next 4 starts. But he did finish the season strong, notching 5 wins in his last 7 decisions. Pencil him in for a minimum of 15 wins and 200 innings next season, to go along with at least a 3.50 ERA. 

#2: A.J. Burnett (R) - His stuff is absolutely dominant when it’s all clicking… that is, if and when he’s healthy and actually on the mound. The “if” part has always been the problem with Burnett. He has pitched in over 25 games in a given season only 3 times in his entire career. But when tossing, his 69-66 career record doesn’t do his talent justice. Burnett can hit about 97 on the radar gun, and has a sick curve to boot (opponents hit .117 against it in ‘07). He struck out 176 batters last season in 165 2/3 innings pitched. Burnett is pretty dominant against hitters from both sides of the plate, but is actually tougher on lefties (only .200 BAA). Assuming he stays healthy in 2008, he will opt out of the remaining 2 years on his current contract, and opt for free agency.

#3: Dustin McGowan (R) - A star in the making. This 25-year old throws his fastball in the mid-90’s, and adds a slider, curve and change-up to his pitch arsenal. In 2007, McGowan went 12-10 with a 4.08 ERA. Doesn’t sound too impressive on the surface. However, he had a respectable 1.22 WHIP and batters only hit .230 against him. Against righties, the numbers get even more impressive… where he had a 1.02 WHIP and a .198 batting average against. His defining game may have come in late September, when he pitched a complete-game, 5-hitter against the Boston Red Sox, in a 5-1 win for the Jays. He gave up only 1 earned run, while striking out 9 hitters and surrendering 0 walks. McGowan may end up the ace of the Jays staff in a few years.

#4: Shaun Marcum (R) - His 12-6 record in 2007 may be too much to ask for again in 2008. He doesn’t throw very hard, but his fastball sets up his slider, curve and change-up nicely. He posted a respectable 1.25 WHIP and .249 BAA last season as well. If you ask me, he needs to throw more curves and less change-ups. Batters hit only .188 against the curve in 2007, and a hefty .298 when he threw his change. Even though he went 8-3 in the 2nd half last season, he had a 4.68 ERA and .277 BAA, which may mean teams were starting to become accoustomed to his “stuff.” His first 5 starts of 2008 should be very telling. But he is still one of the better #4 starters in the AL.

#5: Jesse Litsch (R) - Got his shot last season because of injuries to Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett, and he performed fairly well. In 20 starts, Litsch went 7-9 with a 3.81 ERA and .270 BAA. He is great against righty hitters (1.02 WHIP, .229 BAA), but lefties smack him around (1.72 WHIP, .308 BAA). Probably not the ideal pitcher against the Yankees then. If Litsch can find a way to be more effective vs. left foots, he should be a solid pitcher for many years. In the 2nd half of 2007, he did get stronger, posting a 6-6 record with a 3.54 ERA.

Others: LHP Gustavo Chacin (24-14 over last 3 seasons, coming off shoulder injury) and RHP Casey Jenssen will be competing with Jesse Litsch in Spring Training for that #5 spot in the rotation, but most expect Litsch to emerge as the winner. If Chacin is fully recovered, he will easily be the starter in waiting when the first pitcher goes down.

BULLPEN:

Middle Relief: The core of the early portion of the bullpen is made up of Jason Frasor (R), Brandon League (R) and Brian Tallet (L). Frasor had a rough 2007, posting a 1-5 record and 4.58 ERA. He did, however, strikeout 59 batters in only 57 innings or work, and righties only hit .200 against him. Brandon League is a flame-thrower who has never fully met his expectations. Shoulder problems hampered his 2007 season, but he will be back throwing 98 mph bullets in ‘08. Tallet is actually more dominant against righties, who hit .194 against him last season (righties hit.247).

Setup Men: Right-hander Jeremy Accardo stepped in admirably for B.J. Ryan last season as closer (30 saves, 2.14 ERA), and may be asked to again to start the 2008 season. He will however move back to the main setup man upon Ryan’s return. Left-hander Scott Downs should prove to be the team’s other setup man. He just signed a 3-year, $10 million with the team this past offseason, after posting a 4-2 record with a 2.17 ERA in ‘07. Lefties hit just .209 against him.

Closer: Former closer B.J. Ryan (L) says that he will be ready by Opening Day following elbow-ligament-replacement surgery this past May. Ryan was sick for the Jays in 2006, saving 38 games while posting a 1.37 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. In 2007, he only pitched in 5 games for the team (which weren’t pretty - 12.46 ERA), before being shelved. A fully healthy Ryan makes the Blue Jays SO much more dangerous, since it allows Jeremy Accardo to move into the main setup role, and provide a great combo to close out games. I don’t think expecting this on Opening Day is reasonable, given the injury Ryan is coming back from. I look for Accardo to start the season as the team’s closer (just like he ended in 2007), and Ryan to take over shortly after he gets back sometime in late May. 

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CONCLUSION:

This team just *loves* righties. Right-handers dominate the batting order (absent the Stairs platoon), and they clearly dominate the starting pitching rotation as well. Will this end up being a problem for the Jays lineup? Not necessarily, but it definitely bears mention. As noted above, the team’s middle of the order crushes lefties, and struggles decently against right-handers. Overbay and Stairs will need to have big seasons in 2008.

The starting pitching, #1-3, might be the best in the entire AL East. This trio will need to stay healthy and be dominant, or at least keep the Jays in the ballgames they start. This team’s bullpen has the potential to be well above league average. But as noted earlier, having B.J. Ryan healthy and in the closer’s role for the majority of the season is paramount. Then they can move Accardo in the 8th inning spot, and work matchup’s with the rest of the pen. Without a healthy Ryan, I sincerely doubt the Jays can stick around 2nd place long enough to stay in the race for the long-haul. Their ceiling is a 2nd place finish again in the AL East, and a possible Wild Card spot.

Realistically though, I put the Jays at 85 wins, and another 3rd place finish in the East. But I do think this team is on the verge of making that tough climb up the hill in the coming years, and into a dogfight for an AL playoff spot. Thoughts?

Filed under: Toronto Blue Jays, _Polls, _Team Outlooks (2008)