A volcanic eruption occurs when pressure on the magma chamber well below the mountain’s peak causes the chamber to succumb and allow magma to seep up through the volcano’s vents, sometimes resulting in magnificent explosions.   Some volcanoes can remain dormant for many years before an inevitable explosion. 

Well, the volcano that is the Tampa Bay Devil Rays has been dormant for many, many years.  In fact, the club has been in the league for ten years and has finished in last place nine times, with 2004 being the lone exception.  (In that year they finished next to last, with just 70 wins - a franchise record.)

But in the last few years, the magma that is the Rays farm system (bear with me) has been starting to stir up.  On offense, youngsters like Carl Crawford (over the last few years) and B.J. Upton (last year) have begun to fulfill their potential, leading the 2007 team (helped by acquisitions Carlos Pena and Akinori Iwamura) to a  .268/.336/.433 line, which was good enough for middle of the pack in the American League.  The team was also third in homeruns (187) and stolen bases (131).  Meanwhile, young pitcher Scott Kazmir took another step towards his development to “Ace” status and was joined by James Shields to form a very effective top of the rotation in 2007.  The staff still struggled (last in ERA at 5.53), but more help should be on the way (Matt Garza this year, and other top prospects in the coming years). 

Bottom line: This franchise is not awful anymore, and has a tremendous group of talent ready to join the current crop of major league talent in the coming years.  At that point, this team could explode like a vicious volcano and be pretty good for a long time.  Let’s take a look at the 2008 team and see how close this volcano is until it erupts.

Prospect Watch: But first, in order to fully understand the 2008 team, it’s important to note the prospects in Tampa’s system that are bursting at the seams of the major league roster and may be close to helping make this volcano blow. 

The pitching prospects are led by 22 year old David Price, the #1 overall pick in the ‘07 draft.  MiLB.com says the 6′6 22 year old throws “a plus fastball, slider and above-average changeup, (has) excellent command of his pitches and (has) the kind of leadership on the mound that screams ‘future ace’.”   The Rays also have lefty Jake McGee, 21, who posted a combined 3.15 ERA in A and AA ball last year while striking out 175 in just 140 innings.  He could be the team’s future closer.  Then there’s 21 year old righty Wade Davis (9.11 K/9 in 80 innings of AA ball last year) and 24 year old Jeff Niemann (former 4th overall pick in 2004; 3.98 ERA in AAA last year).  Price and Niemann could be with the Rays as early as later this year.

The offensive prospects are led by Evan Longoria (whom we’ll get to) and Reid Brignac, a 6′3 shortstop with power potential.  Also on the horizon are outfielders Desmond Jennings (a 21 year old who hit .315/.401/.565 with 45 steals in A ball last year) and Ryan Royster (also 21, he hit 30 HR’s with a .329/.380/.601 line at single A last year).  Longoria’s already at the big league level, and Brignac should be following him soon. 

And there are more.  In fact, Baseball America’s Jim Callis has tabbed the Rays with the #1 farm system in baseball. Overall, the Rays are a club with some of the game’s top prospects that will join an already young and upcoming major league roster.  And with that, we finally get to the 2008 outlook…

The Starting Rotation:

1. Scott Kazmir (L) -  The 24 year old fireballer stolen from the Mets nearly four years ago in a Great Moment in Fleece History topped the 200 innings pitched plateau last year, and put up phenomenal numbers along the way: 13 wins, 239 K’s and a 3.48 ERA.  Perhaps the most encouraging sign is that the young lefty’s second half numbers were dominant (2.39 ERA, and 124 K’s in 94 IP), suggesting the heavy workload did not wear Kazmir down.   Plus, he’s an A.L. East dragon slayer as - despite a 2-3 record in 2007 - he kills Red Sox (2.78 ERA in 36 IP in ‘07) and Yankees (2.66 ERA in 24 IP in ‘07).  One negative is that Kazmir’s walks were high (89) last year which lead to a 1.38 WHIP.  He’ll need to improve that.  I think he will, and I think his .337 BABIP should come down a little in 2008, also helping out that WHIP.  Health concerns will always be a problem for Kazmir because of his stature (6′0, 170 lbs), but if he can give the Rays 34 starts again, watch out.  We could see another step forward for the young ace.  15 wins and a low 3 ERA is a strong possibility.  Several Mets fans just barfed, so let’s give them a few minutes to clean up before we continue.  (waiting……..)  Okay, let’s continue…

2. James Shields (R) - Shields’ progression in 2007 was a pleasant surprise for the Rays.  He threw 215 innings with a 3.85 ERA, 184 K’s and fired up 12 W’s.   If graphed, his season would look like a huge “V”.  He started out strong in April (3.75 ERA) and May (2.66 ERA), but then hit the dumps in June (5.57 ERA) and July (6.62 ERA).  And just as we were about to dismiss him as a flash in the pan, Shields finished stronger than he started: August ERA of 2.79 ERA and September ERA of 1.64 ERA.  What should we expect out of the 26 year old in 2008?  I think more of the same, with no major deviations in any category.  His minor league stats, coupled with his 2007 major league performance suggest Shields found his rhythm somewhere around 2005 and hasn’t really looked back.  Everywhere I look, I become more convinced that James Shields is for real. 

3. Matt Garza (R)- Without any disrespect intended towards Delmon Young, I think the Young/Garza trade was a brilliant one for a Rays team rich in offensive talent but lacking depth in the pitching rotation.  In fact, the trade was almost too logical for the Rays.  As for Garza, he posted a respectable 3.69 ERA in 83 innings for the Twins last year after excelling in the minors for three years (combined 2.88 ERA).  The former 1st round pick in 2005 seems poised to become a decent #2 starter for years.  2008 should be a step in that direction.  A 2007 James Shields would be the best case scenario.  At worst, Garza should blossom in 2009/2010, much like many of the Rays youngsters.

4 and 5.  Andy Sonnanstine (R)/Edwin Jackson (R)/Jason Hammel (R)/J.P. Howell (L)- Two of these four will likely emerge out of Spring Training as the back-end starters for the Rays, with Sonnanstine and Jackson the probables.  Sonnanstine, 24, was given 22 starts last year and handed in an awful 5.85 ERA.  He will surely be given another chance, though, as he did show potential at times (8 innings, 2 hits vs NYY on 8/31; and 6.2 innings, 3 runs @ Boston on 8/15, for example).  Jackson, also 24, was once a huge prospect for the Dodgers but has fizzled at the Major League level (5.64 ERA in 273 IP).  He was given 31 starts last year and should be a favorite to land some more starts early in the year.  Hammel, 25, was rocked last season (6.14 ERA in 85 IP) and seems destined for middle relief duty.  Howell, another 24 year-old, was a 1st round pick in 2004 (by the Royals) but has struggled to live up to the hype.  In 10 starts last season, Howell posted a 7.59 ERA.  And don’t forget, Jeff Niemann and perhaps even David Price could occupy these spots by the end of the year.

The Bullpen:

Middle Relief: The losers of the aforementioned 4th and 5th spots in the rotation will likely see some middle relief duty.  Gary Glover (R) will also see some time in the 6th and 7th innings.  Glover threw 77 innings last year (lead the ‘pen) with a 4.89 ERA.  Also in the mix is Scott Dohman (R), who didn’t allow a run at home last year (just 15 IP, though), Grant Balfour (R), whose name is spelled similarly to “Ball Four” which fits with his 58 walks in 93 career innings, and the intriguing options of Chad Orvella (R) and fireballer Juan Salas (R).  Salas has a raw arm (he is a converted third baseman), throws heat, and could be groomed as a future closer.  He was caught cheating last year, though.  Roids.

The Setup Crew: 36 year-old Al Reyes (R) saved 26 games for the Rays in 2007, but often made it interesting, as his 4.90 ERA would suggest.  In fact, Reyes’ ERA was over 7 on the road and approached 6 after the All-Star break.  He gave up 13 homeruns in his 61 innings.  Miserable.  So moving him out of the setup role was probably the second most wise decision the club could have made.  (Ideally, they would have sold high on him and fleeced a team at the deadline last year).  My prediction is that Dan Wheeler (R) will supplant Reyes as the Rays primary right-handed setup man early on in 2008.  Wheeler had back to back stellar years in ‘05 and ‘06 with Houston, holding 41 games and saving 12 over that span with a an ERA under 2.50.   Trever Miller (L)will be the primary left-handed setup man in the Rays ‘pen.  Miller is coming off a less than stellar season with the Astros in which he posted a 4.86 ERA and 1.47 WHIP (down from his career 1.52 WHIP) although, in his defense, Miller was over-utilized against righties. 

The Closer: Signing Troy Percival (R) was a smart move.  In ‘07, Percival showed he can still bring it by providing the Cardinals with 40 innings of 1.80 ball.   As long as the Rays don’t overuse him (say…50 IP and very few back to back outings), I expect Percival to be successful in this role.  If Percival starts out hot, the Rays may even be able to use him to fleece a team in July, with Wheeler, Reyes or Salas taking over the job.

The Batting Lineup:

2B. Akinori Iwamura (L) - It was a surprise when Tampa Bay landed Iwamura last offseason.  But the infielder delivered with a .285/.359/.411 line in 2007.  Battling injuries, he ended up with 7 homeruns and 34 RBI in 491 at bats, but had an alarming 114 strikeouts - way too many for a leadoff hitter given his limited duty.   Aside from that worry, the Rays will hope the power stroke Iwamura had in Japan (three years with over 30 HR’s and a career .519 slugging percentage) will emerge here in the states.  All in, this is a hard one to project but I’ll be bold and say Iwamura makes a bump up to 15 HR’s in 2008 as he becomes more familiar with the league.

LF. Carl Crawford (L)- He turned in a Crawford-like .313/.355/.466 in 2007 with 50 steals, 11 homeruns, 37 doubles and 9 triples.  He also hit .318 versus lefties (.276 career), which should minimize the worry of having three straight left-handed hitters at the top of this order.  A negative to Crawford is that his strikeouts increased from 85 in 2006 (600 at bats) to 112 in 2007 (584 at bats) - not a good trend for a 2 hole hitter.  He’ll hope to reverse that in 2008, and I think he will based on the fact that he K’d just 40 times in the second half of the year.  Expect another great season out of Crawford, as he continues to become a star in this league.

1B. Carlos Pena (L) - We waited a long time for Carlos Pena’s breakout year.  4 teams didn’t wait long enough.  It finally came in 2007 as Pena belted 46 home runs and drove in 121 runs in his first year with Tampa Bay, his 5th club in the majors.  He was recently rewarded the AL Comeback Player of the Year and was given a 3-year contract.  I don’t expect him to repeat 2007 (especially the .627 slugging percentage, which is INSANE), but I also don’t believe Pena’s massive year was a fluke.  I’m calling for 35 homeruns and something like a .275/.380/.580 line - still very impressive.

CF. B.J. Upton (R) - The 23 year old former #2 overall pick in the 2002 draft also had a huge breakout year in 2007, after he was finally given a chance at some serious Major League at bats.  It seemed like we were waiting on this guy to get his shot forever, but his  horrendous middle infield defense kept holding him back.  The move to outfield was a smart one by the Rays and Upton delivered there and at that plate, hitting .300/.386/.508 with 24 homers and 82 RBI in 474 at bats.  He cooled off towards the end of the year (.270 in August and .244 in September), but overall I think it’s safe to say that Upton has arrived and has no plans of turning back.  I predict he posts simlar numbers in 2008, and being in the cleanup spot for an extended period of time should increase his RBI total without affecting his stolen base total (22) too much. 

DH. Johnny Gomes (R)/ Clifford Floyd (L) - Gomes can mash.  He hit 17 bombs last year in 348 at bats.  And he crushes lefties (.313/.376/.542).  But he only gets on base at a 32% clip overall and righties kill him (.218/.302/.429).  As you can tell, he’s an ideal platoon candidate, and that’s what should happen in Tampa.  Cliff Floyd will be the left-handed compliment.  Floyd’s splits aren’t nearly as dramatic as Gomes’, but he has hit righties at a decent .281/.368/.491 clip throughout his career.  Oh, and you can forget about Barry Bonds as a Tampa DH according to Rays executive VP Andrew Friedman.  Note, however, that his platoon will depend on Rocco Baldelli staying healthy.  If Baldelli can avoid the DL and allow this platoon to exist, the Rays could see 25-30 HR’s and a .280+ average out of this spot.  It’s all on Rocco.  Speak of the devil (ray)…

RF. Rocco Baldelli (R)- The Mark Prior of centerfielders, Rocco Baldelli once again arrives at Spring Training with aspirations of a breakout year.  One thing is certain: there is no doubt that the potential is there for greatness.  If this guy can stay healthy, we could be looking at 25 homeruns and a .300/.350/.475 line.   But already in 2008, Baldelli’s most outstanding trait - his ability to play phenomenal CF defense - will be stripped away to preserve his ailing hamstrings.  Baldelli will play right-field if he’s healthy, and might (should) be broken in as a DH early in the year.   If he has a quick start, you could see the Rays trade him in a fleece attempt.  But, personally, I’d hold onto this guy.  Once (if) he gets over the hamstring issues, he will be a star.   If he can’t stay healthy, one of Cliff Floyd or Johnny Gomes will play RF - not a pretty sight.  PS: Are hamstring injuries really this hard to solve?  Aren’t these problems fixed countless times in other sports? 

3B. Evan Longoria (R)- In less than two years in the minors, the 3rd overall pick in the 2006 draft hit an impressive .304/.388/.546 combined, and flashed above average defensive skills.  Now, the 22 year old product of Long Beach State seems poised to make the jump to the big leagues.  Longoria definitely has 30 homerun potential, but odds are that we won’t see that power immediately.  Then again, it wouldn’t shock me to see Longoria have a Tulowitzki (another Long Beach alumni) or Braun type rookie campaign.  After all, we’re talking about a consensus top 2 or 3 prospect in all of baseball that has shown he has a quick learning curve at every level.  If Longoria does start the year off at AAA, look for Willy Aybar and/or Eric Hinske to warm third base for the future star.  But I’m going to go ahead and call it right now: Rookie of the Year.

C. Dioner Navarro (S) - In perhaps the one position where the Rays don’t have a star already or a sure fire prospect waiting in the wings, they do have this 24 year-old who has shown remarkable defensive skills for such a young age.  Navarro’s offense, though, has been horrible (.227/.286/.356 last year).  But there is room for massive improvements and if the pudgy backstop can stay healthy, I see no reason why he won’t improve on those numbers and at least return to his 2006 line of .254/.332/.354.  Not too shabby.

SS. Jason Bartlett (R)- The newly acquired shortstop will hope to finally live up to the potential.  After a .309/.367/.393 season in ‘06 (333 at bats), Bartlett regressed to .265/.339/.361 in 2007.  2008 will probably fall somewhere in between, and I think Tampa would take that as Bartlett will also upgrade their defense at one of the most important positions on the field.  And if Bartlett bombs out, no worries.  The Rays have Reid Brignac waiting in the wings.

Bench: Willy Aybar (S) was acquired from the Braves to serve as Evan Longoria insurance.  But the one thing holding Aybar back from his baseball potential struck again immediately as Aybar was taken into custody in early February on a domestic violence charge.  Fool.  He’s since been released from custody, but his reliability is still in doubt.  Because of that, the Rays also signed Eric Hinske (L).  The Rays will also have former starting shortstop Ben Zobrist (S), utility man Joel Guzman (R), backup catcher Mike DeFelice (R)and the Gomes/Floyd platoon at their disposal. 

The Conclusion:

In 2008, the Tampa Bay Rays will break their franchise record for wins and end up with close to 75 W’s.  In fact, if they played in a weak division (although, are there any of those left?), I would say they could break the .500 plateau.  Still, 75 wins for the Rays will be an inspiring season and - with Baltimore in the division - should be good enough for fourth place in the A.L East. 

It’s 2009-2011 that the rest of the division should be worried about.  In the next few years, the Rays will have a matured Evan Longoria and a maturing Reid Brignac in a lineup that should still include an improving B.J. Upton, Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Rocco Baldelli, and Anikori Iwamura.   The starting rotation could look like this: Scott Kazmir, David Price, Matt Garza, James Shields and Jeff Niemann with Jake McGee or Juan Salas closing.  And the scary part is that there are more prospects that could also have an impact in those years.  So much potential.

I guess being bad for so long has it’s benefits as long as you draft well.  And Tampa Bay has done so recently.  Now all the front office has to do is avoid the temptation of tinkering with this team. (Do not trade Kazmir, Crawford, etc.).  Let the youngsters grow.  Follow the plan and let everything fall into place.  To get back to our corny volcano analogy, the magma chamber that is the abundance of youth in the Tampa system will soon pressurize and this once dormant volcano will erupt with a vengeance.  Playoffs within the next three years is possible….even in the A.L. East.

Filed under: Tampa Bay Rays, _Polls, _Team Outlooks (2008)