2008 is a make-or-break year for Yankees general manager Brian Cashman. Gone are the dynasty years under Joe Torre and George Steinbrenner, when the Yankees won 4 World Championships from 1996-2000, and made another 2 appearances in the Series after that… and in is the era of former NL Manager of the Year and New York Yankee Joe Girardi, and the big-mouth son of The Boss, Hank Steinbrenner.

Failing to trade for the ace [Johan Santana] that everyone felt the Yankees needed might this past offseasn might very well cement Cashman’s legacy, and ultimately, his fate. With the Red Sox having broken their 86-year old curse, and winning 2 of the last 4 titles, Cashman is in a “win now” predicament more than ever. But he chose to stay put with his young talent, over landing arguably the best pitcher on the planet. And it just might be his undoing. If this team fails to make the postseason for the 1st time in 13 seasons, you can bet there will be a fall-guy. Let’s breakdown the team that needs to make another playoff run to likely save Cashman’s head…

Lineup:

LF: Johnny Damon (L) - At age 34, and entering the 3rd season of his 4-year deal, Damon is arguably on the downside of his career. His batting average and on-base percentage have both dropped over the last 3 seasons, and his arm is a liability in the outfield. Frankly, he looks like me throwing lefty out there (and I’m a righty), and that, along with Cabrera’s strong arm, made for his move over to left. The Yankees are hoping he can return to his 2006 form, when he belted 24 HR’s and had 80 RBI, to go along with his 115 runs and 25 stolen bases. Damon also hits lefties fairly well… actually batting for a better average and OBP against them then righties in 2007, although the vast majority of his power came against right-handers. He also finshed up last season strong, hitting almost .300 in the 2nd half. He just needs to keep those legs of his healthy, because he can still be an extremely productive leadoff hitter in this league.

SS: Derek Jeter (R) - The Yankee captain had an “off” year in 2007, at least by his gold standards. From 2006 to 2007, his BA dropped 22 points, his OBP fell 29 points, he scored 16 less runs, hit 2 less homers, stole 19 less bases and drove in 24 less runs. But let’s be honest, a .322/.388/.452 line for a #2 hitter is well above-average. Another solid plus for Jeter is that he smacks lefties and righties equally well, hitting at least .317 against both last year. Oh, and how about not even ONE month when he hit under .301 in 2007. The guy is so solid, and a consummate professional. He might be the least of the Yankees worries in 2008. Expect another All-Star caliber season. As an aside, Jeter is rumored to have conquered: Adriana Lima (Victoria Secret model), Jessica Biel, Vanessa Minillo, Scarlett Johansson, Gabrielle Union, Mariah Carey, Jordana Brewster, Jessica Alba and former Miss Universe Lara Dutta. Damn, I am friggin tired just thinking about it! 

RF: Bobby Abreu (L) - Abreu had his $16 million option picked up by the Yankees, and will become a free agent after the ‘08 season. He had a solid 2007 when you look at the numbers he compiled, but his OBP was 39 points lower than his career average. And that is certainly a concern for this team. Abreu has been awarded that #3 spot mainly b/c of his propensity to get on base. Don’t get me wrong, a .369 OBP isn’t the worst thing in the world, but more is exptected of Abreu in that department. The 123 runs scored, 101 RBI and 25 SB’s all look really pretty too. The good news is that Abreu seemed to turn things around in the 2nd half last season, hitting .305 with a .390 on-base, much closer to what the Yanks look for out of him. Abreu’s horrible May seemed to do his overall totals in. Despite his struggles against lefties, I look for him to have another solid season at the plate, and another season in the outfield where he doesn’t hussle for most fly balls. His strong throwing arm does make him dangerous to run on, however.

3B: Alex Rodriguez (R) - The reinging AL MVP signed the biggest contract in sports history this past offseason, which could end up totaling over $300 million. Character issues aside, this guy is an outright beast. Where do I begin? A .314/.422/.645 line? 143 runs scored? 54 home runs? 156 RBI? 24 SB’s? It was an historical season for A-Rod in 2007 at the plate. And despite his rash of errors at times over at third, he normally plays Gold-Glove caliber defense at the hot corner. A-Rod actually hits righties far better than southpaws too. But there are no real worries about Rodriguez’s production during the 2008 regular season, but rather all fans know the questions begin to  surface when we start talking the postseason. Again in 2007 against the Indians, A-Rod had only 1 RBI in 15 AB’s. But in September, he hit a whopping .362 with a .470 OBP. Go figure. His goal is to win a championship with the Yankees, and he eventually will get one (or three).

C: Jorge Posada (S) - Posada turned a career year at the plate into a 4-year, $52 million deal. Yes, a 4-year deal for a 36-year old catcher. Granted, Posada had all the leverage, as there were no suitable replacements for his bat in the lineup. And besides, the Yanks feel they can move him to either 1B or DH if the need arises in the future. While Posada showed absolutely no signs of slowing down in 2007, there is a lot of wear on that body. He hit a ridiculous .338, with a .426 on-base percentage. Tack on 63 extra-base hits and 90 RBI, and you become a very rich man. He did only throw out 24% of base stealers, however. But past that, this switch-hitter mashers lefties and rigties alike, on the road or at home. And his absurd .395/.511/.632 line in September seems to show he isn’t slowing down anytime soon.

DH: Hideki Matsui (L) - ”Godzilla” was the subject of trade rumors to the San Francisco Giants this past offseason, but clearly, not concrete ever materialized. Right now, he is slated to open the season as the team’s DH, while also getting some playing time in LF. After missing much of the 2006 season with a fractured wrist, Matsui came back and played in 143 games in ‘07. Gone are the days of his 518 consecutive-game streak. Even still, Matsui remained productive… scoring 100 runs, belting 25 HR’s and driving in 103. His .285 BA was 10 points below his career average, but his .367 OBP was right around par. Matsui’s home/road splits are fairly equal, and he hits both lefties and righties well. But his month of September was something to forgot, as he hit only .185. That carried over into the Divisional Series too, where he batted .182, and was eventually benched. Overall, Matsui is a great fastball hitter (.348 BA in ‘07), but gets eaten-up by the curve (.191). The Yankees will need another 100 run, 25-30 HR, 105+ RBI season from Matsui in 2008, if they are to reach the postseason once again. If he is unable to go to start the season (knee), Shelley Duncan could fill-in as DH, or flip-flop with Giambi at 1B.

1B: Jason Giambi (L) - Giambi is entering the final year of his mega 7-year, $120 million contract with the Yanks. He has an option for 2009 worth $22 million (or a $5M buyout), which is almost assuredly going to be passed up. Manager Joe Girardi has told Giambi that he wants him to play the bulk of his playing time at 1B this season. It makes sense so that the team can get both Damon and Matsui’s bats into the lineup as well. However, Giambino could end up in a platoon with Shelley Duncan when facing a southpaw on the mound. As for 2007, it was not a kind year to Jason. He played in only 83 games, with 53 of them as the DH. When he was in the lineup, he wasn’t all that productive, batting only .236 (53 points below career avg.) with a .356 OBP (55 below). Throw in a .433 slugging percentage, and it gets pretty ugly considering the salary he’s being paid! He sturggles mightily at times against left-handed pitching, and hit a miserable .200 after the break last year. Might be the most susceptible player in the bigs to a curveball with a 2-strike count (he hit .151 against the pitch last year, .100 vs. lefties). Hopefully a contract year brings some refocus to Giambi. The Yankees will need him to be more than a butcher at 1B, and to blast around 30 HR’s again. At 37, is that too much to ask though?  

2B: Robinson Cano (L) - He could end up in the #3 or #5 spot later in the ‘08 campaign, but for now, this is where I see him (perhaps 1 more spot up). What’s not to love about this kid? He is such a natural hitter, is slick with the glove, and has a smile that can light up a dugout or baseball diamond. And the Yankees brass sees it the same way I guess, as they locked him up long-term this offseason. After hitting an amazing .342 in 2006, Cano hit “only” .306 in ‘07. The 67 XB-hits and 97 RBI more than up for that dip in BA production, however. Cano actually hit 32 points higher against lefties last year too, and his near .300 average against righties isn’t anything to sneeze at either. If you breakdown his 2007 numbers closely, you can see that Cano is do for a monster 2008 season. After struggling early on the year, he came back with a vengence in the 2nd half. Just how good was he? How about a .343/.396/.557 line, with 13 HR’s and 57 RBI. Wow. And all this from the 2B position. I look for Cano to go .320/25/100/10 this upcoming season. He’s the total package.

CF: Melky Cabrera (S) - Cabrera got regular playing time in CF early on in the 2007, due to Damon’s calf issues and Giambi’s DL stint. And he certainly made the most of it. His solid range and powerful throwing arm landed him a regular starting gig. Melky led all major-league CF’s with 14 assists last year. At the plate, Cabrera wasn’t anything special though, batting only .273 with 8 homers. But he did manage to contribute 80 RBI and 13 steals, and at the age of 23, still has plenty of upside. After hitting .368 and .306 in the months of July and August, respectively, Melky tailed off in September, only batting a paltry .180. He also needs to improve on his .250 BA versus left-handed pitching. But from the #9 hole, the Yankees don’t need a tremendous amount from his stick. A .285 BA and 75 RBI are more then acceptable. He is in there mostly for his defense.

Bench: High-fiving, forearm bashing Shelley Duncan (R) should play a vital role for the team this season. As mentioned, he will likely platoon with Giambi at 1B (hit .303 vs. lefties in ‘07), and he might also see some time at DH and occasionally in the OF. He has legitimate power, but K’s a bunch and doesn’t hit for a high avg. Wilson Betemit (S) will be the super-utility man off the bench for manager Joe Girardi. He can play any position in the infield, and being a switch-hitter, he’s also a valuable bat off the pine. Catcher Jose Molina (R) will serve as the backup to Jorge Posada, and should see about 3 games every 2 weeks or so. He did hit .318 in limited action (66 AB’s) for the Yankees last season, but he is clearly known for his defense. Well, that and being 1 of 3,457 Molina family members catching in the majors today. Newly-signed Morgan Ensberg (R) could make the club, but he isn’t desparately needed.

Prospect Watch: Outfielder Austin Jackson (R) is a top prospect to keep an eye on. He is only 21 years old, but we may be looking at him in RF next season (he can also play CF). He is a line-drive hitter with speed and a solid arm, but he does have a penchant for striking out a bit too much. But he is a patient hitter, and would fit right into this Yankee lineup. 

Starting Pitching:

#1: Chien-Ming Wang (R) - Has solidified himself as the “ace” of the Yankee staff over the last 2 seasons, but therein also lies the problem. Wang is an extremely efficient pitcher, but despite his 19 wins in each of the last 2 seasons, he should not be a #1 on a team looking to win a championship. In fact, one could argue that in 2007, he was the 5th best #1 in the AL East (Beckett, Bedard, Halladay, Kazmir). He is beter suited as a solid #2 or excellent #3, on a great staff. Wang utilizes a hard sinker and four-seam fastball (around 96 mph consistently) to induce numerous ground balls, and works late into games, allowing the bullpen to rest on most days that he takes the mound. He also mixes in some sliders and changeups. But he will need to be spectacular in 2008 to make fans forget about the possibility of having Santana in pinstripes. And I’m not just talking about the regular season. In 2 postseason starts last season, Wang was shelled by the Indians (both Yankees losses), giving up 12 earned runs in only 5 2/3 innings of work. If Santana were on the mound in those games, the Yanks are probably moving on to the next round. But hindsight is 20/20, and Johan wasn’t even a possibility last season. But it’s fun for comparitive reasons. His 46-18 career record cannot be ignored though.

#2: Andy Pettitte (L) - Pettitte will need to shake-off the offseason distractions surrounding the Mitchell Report (being named in it) and the hearings for his buddy (former?) Roger Clemens. Pettitte seems like a real sensitive guy, but hopefully he is able to focus on pitching. Yankee fans and teammates will certainly be behind him 100%. Andy is a warrior, as evidenced by his playoff performance against the Indians in the AL Division Series, where he didn’t allow a run in 6 1/3 innings, despite numerous runners in scoring position. He finished the 2007 season with a 15-9 record, but his overall numbers weren’t outstanding. His 1.43 WHIP and .286 BAA need to be improved upon in 2008. But Pettitte’s a battler, and will keep the Yankees in most of the games he starts. They will need another 15+ win season from him yet again. He has also expressed his desire to play for the Yankees beyond the ‘08 season. Andy is known mostly for his cutter, which moves in on righties, and his outstanding pick-off move to first base.

#3: Phil Hughes (R) - Hughes is the future ace of the Yankees rotation. And for Cashman’s sake, it better be evident early on in 2008. If Hughes and/or Ian Kennedy start out struggling, Hank might be calling for Cashman’s exit very early on. We all know Steinbrenner isn’t going to keep his mouth shut if the team is reeling. Anyway, at age 21, Hughes has yet to fully breakout, but it’s coming, and real soon. He loves to throw his fastball, which is consistently in the 91-92 range, and can top out at 95-96. About 3/4 of all his pitches in 2007 was the heater. He also throws two breaking pitches… a nasty curve and strong slider, both of which could become plus pitches. Hughes throws a changeup occasionally as well. He has very good command of most of his pitches, but could improve on the spotting of his curveball. In 13 starts last year, he posted a 5-3 record and 4.46 ERA. He was excellent against righties, with a 1.00 WHIP and .210 BAA. However, Hughes struggled in the Bronx. While a solid 4-1 on the road (.148 BAA), he was only 1-2 at home (.313 BAA). He will need to improve on that, obviously. Last May, Hughes took a no-hitter into the 7th inning against Texas, before having to leave with an injury. He clearly has all the tools. He just needs to stay healthy for a full season. 15 wins is very possbile in 2008, even with the Yankees likely to cap his innings around 170.

#4: Mike Mussina (R) - The team needs him to be more like his 2006 self, when he went 15-7 with a 3.51 ERA, and less like his 2007 self. Mussina was a nightmare too often last season, and might just be the “X-factor” of the ‘08 staff. If he really struggles early on, the team may be forced to move Joba into the rotation  quickly, and then have to go with a Hawkins/Farnsworth setup situtation. Scary! Or worse, have Kei Igawa or Jeff Karstens possibly in the rotation. Personally, I don’t want to see either of those options. In 2007, Mussina went 11-10, with a 5.15 ERA and .311 BAA, the latter two both easily being career worsts for Moose. Lefties and righties alike teed off on him, home and away. He even had 2 months with an ERA over 8.85, gross. The only positive, Mussina did end September with a 3-0 mark and a respectable 3.49 ERA. A spring note that could be cause for concern is that Mussina is apparently only throwing 83-84 mph. His fastball might top out at 87 by Opening Day. Moose mostly throws a 4-seam fastball, 2-seamer, knucke-curve, slider and changeup. Yanks need at least a 12-win, 4.15 ERA from him in 2008.

#5: Ian Kennedy (R) - The 23-year old out of USC pitched admirably for the Yankees last season, after being called up from the minors to take Mussina’s spot in the rotation. In 3 regular season starts, he went 1-0 with a 1.89 ERA. He also held opponenets to a .189 BAA, struckout 15 batters in 19 innings, and only allowed 1 long ball. He was equally effective against both lefties and righties, albeit in a small sample size. While only throwing his fastball at around 90 mph, Kennedy has excellent command of his pitches, which is what makes him so effective. He also throws a 2-seamer, solid changeup, a curve and slider. He too will need to be more than adequate in 2008 for the Yankees to contend. And was yet another player rumored to be in the package for Johan Santana that never materialized. 

Others: Eerily, Kei Igawa (L) might be the first pitcher to get a start if Mussina falters early on. His 6.25 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in 2007 weren’t exactly inspiring. Heck, and lefties hit .320 against the guy, sheeseh. Jeff Karstens (R) could make the team as the long-man out of the bullpen, provided Joba Chamberlain begins the season as the main setup man, and not in the rotation. Otherwise, Kennedy or Mussina could fill that role. He could find his way into a couple of starts at some point, if he makes the squad. Oft-injured Carl Pavano (R) is a total waste usually, but he may prove reasonably valuable in the 2nd half of the season, provided he can stay healthy for more than 24 hours. When the team is looking to cap some innings to save their young kids for the final month or so, Pavano may sneak in some spot starts.

Propsect Watch: Big-man Humberto Sanchez (R) could be a late-season callup for the bullpen, provided he returns healthy from Tommy John surgery. He has a fastball around 94-96, with a solid slider and curve. Jeff Marquez (R), another of the rumored Yankees in the Johan package, went 15-9 with a 3.65 ERA in AA last year. We may also see him coming out of the pen at some point for the club. 25-year old Alan Horne (R) is yet another Yankee prospect that we might see make the team in the bullpen. Basically, only Farnsworth and Hawkins are assured spots at this point (aside from Chamberlain). Horne throw a mid-90’s fastball and sick curve.

Bullpen:

Middle Relievers: Newly-signed LaTroy Hawkins (R), came over from the Rockies. Assuming Joba starts the season in the pen, he will be used in the 6th inning, and sometimes in the 7th or 8th if the setup men are taxed. Hard-throwing Brian Bruney (R) has a change to make the team, but his command is certainly a concern for a reliever. 6′4″ Ross Ohlendorf (R) can hit the upper 90’s with a hard-sinking fastball, and had a .111 BAA vs. righties in several innings last year. Edwar Ramirez (R) wasn’t all that spectacular in ’07, with his 8.14 ERA and .286 BAA. He was however, fairly effective against righties. 25-year old Chris Britton (R) is a 280 lb. monster, who has averaged 9.5 K/9 in the minors. I would think either him or Bruney make the Opening Day squad, not both. I also see a lack of a left-hander here, so Sean Henn (L) is also a viable candidate to be on the Opening Day roster. Lots of competition here for only a few spots.

Setup Men: It seems Joba Chamberlain (R) will begin the season as the Yanks bridge to Rivera, and it makes total sense to me. A 7/8 inning combo of Hawkins/Farsworth has Tums written all over it for Yankee fans. In 2007, Chamberlain went 2-0 in 19 appearences, with a ridiculous 0.38 ERA. Add 34 K’s in 24 innings and only 1 HR surrendered, and you know why this is the right move, for now. Fireballer Kyle Farnsworth (R) will battle LaTroy Hawkins for 7th inning duties, and I think he will at least open the year as the guy. His fastball can reach 100 mph, and his slider is even in the low 90’s. He has arguably his 2 best months of the season in August and September, so let’s hope that carries over to the ‘08 season. Well, that and this being his contract year and all.

Closer: The Yankees signed closer Mariano Rivera (R) to a massive (AAV) long-term deal this offseason, giving him a 3-year, $45 million deal. I think they could have gotten him to sign for 2 years at such a high average annual salary (AAV), but the Yankees can afford it…. and let’s face it, they weren’t going to let him walk. Rivera, possibly the greatest closer of all-time, had a shaky 2007 campaign. He went 3-4 with a 3.15 ERA and .246 BAA. Not Rivera-esque, exactly. But he did still K more than 1 batter per inning. He continues to rely on his cutter, of course, but lefties and righties both hit over .240 against him last year. But the 3rd year of this deal, Rivera may very well be in the 7th or 8th inning role for the Yanks.

CONCLUSION:

The Yankees current lack of starting pitching depth is certainly a cause for concern, as the team is one injury and ineffective pitcher away from possible disaster. Add the fact that there will be innings caps on the plethora of young arms, and you see the fragility of the 2008 season. They are certainly asking a whole lot of such a young pitching staff. But, as always, the Yankee lineup should give plenty of cushion for their pitchers, and the team has the means to make moves later on in the season, if necessary.

I would like to point out that I totally respect what Brian Cashman did this offseason. He basically (in my eyes) put his job on the line to do what he thought was best move for the organization’s future… keeping the young kids (Hughes, Kennedy, Melky, Horne, Marquez, whoever). While I don’t agree with his decision (as you can likely tell from my Wang analysis), I give the man his props. What he did takes a lot of guts, and think there are only a handful of other GM’s that may have done the same.

As for my projection of where I see the Yankees finishing the season, I am torn. I can see a worst-case scenario that involves a 3rd place finish in the AL East… to a best-case scenario of an AL East title and the #1 seed in the playoffs. Personally, at this moment, I envision the Yankees winning around 91 games, and battling the Indians for the Wild Card spot. I think they will take it by 1 1/2 games. Thoughts?

Filed under: New York Yankees, _Polls, _Team Outlooks (2008)