Despite the presence of an incredibly loyal fanbase, a beautiful ballpark in an emerging city and a regional sports network, the Baltimore Orioles have been wallowing in mediocrity for years.  They haven’t been to the playoffs since 1997 and have failed to reach 80 wins during that span.  Yes, 10 straight years of losing seasons.  Last year, the O’s finished with just 69 wins with only the Devil Rays standing between them and dead last place in the American League East.  But it wasn’t always this way.  Only a decade ago, the Orioles were a successful franchise and seemed to have all the right pieces in place to make them poised to become a perennial contender.  What happened? 

Some might argue that the Yankees and Red Sox beginning to take advantage of their clear financial advantages created the gap between AL East supremacy and the Orioles.  And while that has some truth to it, it certainly cannot write off ten straight losing seasons for Baltimore.  There has to be something intrinsically wrong with the franchise.  And if you ask me, the main reason for the demise of this franchise has been the constant meddling by owner Peter Angelos.  In fact, MLB Fleece Factor has pinpointed what we believe is the exact moment in Orioles history when things went sour: The Albert Belle fleece of 1998.  Ever since that acquisition, which at the time was the richest contract in baseball, Mr. Angelos - a man who in his earlier life made a fortune fighting the good fight against labor abuses, the harms of asbestos, and giants like Philip Morris - seems to be constantly scared off by any thoughts of risk, including the wise risk that comes with handing over baseball decisions to baseball people.   Since the Belle fleece, Angelos has been recycling front office types and managers like a mad man, putting the stop sign on potential wise moves and giving the green light on hazardous ones.  This man, who is now 78 years-old, has turned this once proud franchise that brought us Brooks Robinson and Cal Ripken (among others) into, quite frankly, a turd of a franchise.  Can this turd be polished?  Well, president Andy MacPhail is trying to, that’s for sure.  Let’s take a look at the 2008 squad, and see if he’s beginning to turn the page:

 The Lineup:

2B. Brian Roberts (S) - The Brian Roberts trade rumors are not going away, and I don’t expect the 2nd baseman to be in Baltimore for much of the season (unless Mr. Angelos meddles again).  But I also don’t expect Roberts to let these rumors affect his play too much.  Roberts has now put together three straight superb seasons as both a second baseman and a leadoff hitter.  Last year, he hit .290/.377/.432 with 12 homeruns and 50 steals.   He did struggle towards the end of the season (.247 average post All-Star Break) and his rather high BABIP of .327 for the year leads me to believe his average will fall slightly in 2008.  But overall, I expect something in the range of .280/.360/.410 out of Roberts, whether it be for the O’s, Cubs or any other team.  (The O’s may bring in Mark Loretta or Clint Barmes to act as insurance against a Roberts trade, by the way.)

1B. Kevin Millar (R) - The good news is that he can still get on base (.365 OBP in ‘07 despite a .254 average).  The bad news is that he’s incredibly slow, way past his prime, a horrible defender, loves hitting into double plays, and can’t hit anything on the outer half of the plate.  He’s basically been living off his “Cowboy Up” 2004 season for nearly 4 years, and it’s time to stop that.  Millar simply should not be an everyday player.  Yet the O’s may bat him second in their lineup.  Andy MacPhail will hope Millar starts out hot so they can possibly trade him. 

RF. Nick Markakis (L) - This is the guy the Orioles need to build their team around, and the good news is that I think they actually believe that, too.  Markakis is so good, and has so much potential that Fleece Factor recently inducted the 24 year-old into our “Under 25 Dream Team.”  In 2007, Markakis hit .300/.362/.485 with 23 HR, 18 SB, and 112 RBI.  And that may just be the tip of the iceberg.  In the second half of the season, he mashed .325/.389/.550 with 14 HR and 61 RBI.  Can he carry that momentum into 2008 and produce at that level over the course of an entire season?  I believe it’s possible.  Even with the severe lack of protection around him (and it’s really bad), and despite the numerous left-handed relievers he’s bound to see all year, I’m calling for yet another step forward in Nick Markakis’ production.  He’ll hit nearly 30 HR’s, and finish around .310/.370/.530.  Don’t srew this kid up, Angelos. 

DH. Aubrey Huff (L) - Fleece Factor took a look back at the Huff signing a few months back and concluded that Huff completely fleeced the Orioles in the first year of the 3 year, $20 million deal he signed after the 2006 season (89% 0f our respondents agreed).  Although Huff finished the ‘07 season with an okay .280/.337/.442 line, he had OPS’ of .660 in April, .639 in May, a bounce-back of .849 in June, but then an atrocious .493 OPS in July before finishing the year strong when the Orioles were out of contention.  Some of those OPS’ are in Juan Pierre territory.  And this guy is a DH!  This year, Huff’s already off to a slow start and the season has yet to begin.  He suffered a “sports hernia” in early January which shelved him for about 6 weeks, so expect another dreadful beginning of the year out Huff.  He simply can’t be relied upon, and for Baltimore to potentially use him as their cleanup hitter says a lot about the state of the 2008 Orioles.

LF. Luke Scott (L) - Acquired in the Tejada trade, Scott is a versatile outfielder who hit a respectable .255/.351/.504 in 369 at bats for the Astros last year.  He belted 18 homeruns and drove in 64 RBI’s.  More impressive is that he hit .296/.392/.586 in the second half last year and, surprisingly, actually hit better on the road than at Minute Maid park.  Scott could give the O’s a very productive 2008.  30 HR’s is not an unreasonable expectation.  I would like to note, however, that Scott will be 30 in June.  To receive a 30 year old as one of the main pieces in the Tejada trade when Baltimore could have had younger, better packages over the last few years epitomizes the post-Belle Angelos era.  Even if Scott breaks out in 2008 and 2009, his prime will have been wasted in Baltimore. 

C. Ramon Hernandez (R) - The 31 year old is actually a solid catcher all the way around, though his defense has declined in recent years.  In 364 at-bats last year, he hit 9 homeruns with a .258/.333/.382 line but he’s only two years removed a .275/.343/.479 season.  He also hit .273 after the All-Star break last year, so I expect him to increase his 2007 numbers a bit.  He could represent decent trade bait in July, possibly making room for prospect Matt Wieters, who we’ll get to.

3B. Melvin Mora (R) -Mora, 36, has certainly seen better days.  He enjoyed a few very productive years between 2003 and 2005 (27 homeruns each in 2004 and 2005), but that’s a distant memory now.  He has posted pretty much the same line over the last two years for the Orioles, so I’m pretty confident he’ll give them something similar again in 2008.  Let’s put him at .270/.340/.400 with about 15 homeruns for the 2008 season.  That is a line that is clearly below average for such a deep position in the majors right now.   Rubbing salt into the wound, it should be noted that Mora fleeced the Orioles into a 3 year, $25 million extension in 2006 that will keep him under contract through the 2009 season.  Those expensive terms may hinder the O’s chances of moving Mora this summer.  Regardless of that, the O’s should get creative and figure out a way to move Mora to pave way for prospects like Bill Rowell or Mike Costanzo (acquired in the Tejada trade).  By the way, why does Melvin Mora always look like he’s about to cry?  Is he alright?

CF. Adam Jones (R) - This 22 year-old, acquired in the Erik Bedard trade, is a top outfield prospect in all of baseball.  In 5 minor league seasons, he’s hit .291/.350/.476.  In 2007 for the AAA Tacoma Rainiers, Jones hit an impressive .314/.382/.586 with 25 homeruns in 420 at bats.  Aside from that, his defense is stellar.  Many scouts compare him to a young Mike Cameron.  For the Mariners last season, Jones appeared in 41 games, hitting .246/.300/.400 with 2 homeruns and 21 K’s in 65 at-bats.  In 2008, I’m predicting a season similar to Arizona’s Chris Young last year, except with a few less homers.  Jones is definitely a rare bright spot for this club.

SS. Luis Hernandez (S)/ Brandon Fahey (L)/ Freddie Bynum (L) - Hernandez seems poised to win this job, with Fahey and Bynum (who just underwent surgery for a torn meniscus) battling for the top utility man role.  But neither of these choices will strike fear into opposing pitchers.  As we wrote in an earlier piece, both Hernandez and Fahey are well-known for their glove, but don’t exactly carry a big stick.  Despite hitting .290 with 7 RBI in 69 AB’s with the big league club to end the season, Hernandez (23 years old), hit just .256 with a .290 OBP and 2 HR’s between AA and AAA in 2007.  That’s terrible.  He is just a .250 career hitter in the minors, with just under a .300 OBP.  Fahey, 26, is a .260 career hitter in the minors, with a .322 OBP.  Bynum also plays the outfield but has hit just .259/.300/.452 in 239 major league at-bats.  This spot in the order will infuriate O’s fans all year long.

Bench: If he’s not traded, outfielder Jay Payton (R) will be the star of Baltimore’s bench.  (Congrats, Jay). Payton was horrible last year, but does boast a career line of .281/.325/.432 and plays solid defense. He should get some starts in CF along the way for the young Jones.  Also on the O’s bench will be the losers of the shortstop battle (most likely Fahey and Bynum), outfielders Tike Redman (L) and Chris Roberson (S), and possibly 1B/OF Jay Gibbons* (L) who will be suspended for the first 15 games of the season for cheating (he admitted to HGH use).

Offensive Prospect Watch: Catcher Matt Wieters is the club’s best prospect.  The 6′5, 230 pound backstop can hit for power and average from both sides of the plate. Defensively, he has a strong arm and natural leadership abilities and seems ahead of the curve for someone as young as he is (21).  Jason Varitek has been named as a comparable.  We could see Wieters as a September callup - maybe earlier if Hernandez is traded.  Other top offensive prospects include OF Nolan Reimold,  3B Bill Rowell, and 1B Brandon Snyder, but none of them are in Wieters’ class.

Starting Rotation: 

1. Jeremy Guthrie (R) - This former 1st round pick was actually claimed off waivers from the Indians last January.  That transaction has to be considered a rare fleece for the Orioles, as Guthrie exploded onto the scene last year, throwing 175 innings with a 3.70 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 123 K’s.  But before we get carried away, we should note that there is cause for concern.  Guthrie’s second half ERA was over 5 last year, compared to a 2.70 first half ERA.  Granted, that is mainly because of a stretch in August where he was roughed up in games against the surging Mariners (5 ER in 4 innings), at the New York Yankees (6 ER in 4.2 innings) and home against the pesky Rays (5 ER in 6 innings).  But I’m also concerned about Guthrie because he never really dominated in the minors.  I mean, why would Cleveland - an organization with an outstanding scouting department and a weak bullpen heading into last year - place this guy on waivers?  Sure, there’s a chance that Cleveland completely missed something and/or that a change of scenery brought out the potential in Guthrie.  But I’m not exactly sold.  I predict a rough sophomore campaign for Guthrie.  I hope he proves me wrong, though.  If he does put together another stellar year or two, we’ll be sure to add the Guthrie waiver pickup to our “Great Moments in Fleece History.”

2. Adam Loewen (L) -  The 6′6, 23 year-old left-hander was the fourth overall pick in the 2002 draft.  He missed 5 months last year due to stress fractures in his left elbow but looks ready to start 2008 as the team’s #2 starter.  In 142 major league innings, he’s posted a 4.98 ERA with 120 K’s but has shown potential with his deceptive delivery, decent fastball and good hook.  But many scouts only project him as a 3rd starter, so to depend on him as a #2 starter this early in his career is like asking Aubrey Huff to be your cleanup hitter.  Oh wait…   (Selfishly, I’m kind of rooting for Loewen to be a complete disaster, so we can nickname him “Lindsay Loewen.”  Y’know what, forget it.  I’m just gonna call him that anyway.  Sorry, Adam.)

3. Daniel Cabrera (R) - 2007 was an up and down season for Cabrera, of whom we are still waiting for that “breakout” season.  Cabrera made 34 starts (tied for the American League lead) but went 9-18 with a horrible 5.55 ERA.  He set career highs in innings (204 1/3) and strikeouts (166) but lead the AL in losses and walks (108).  He is 40-49 with a 4.99 ERA in four seasons with the Orioles.  I still have faith in the big righty because of his ability to miss bats (7.57 career K/9) and overall good “stuff.”  One season he’s going to put the control problems behind him and deliver a stellar season.  But he might have to get out of Baltimore to realize that potential.

4. Garrett Olson (L) - Olson may have to battle for this spot, but I’m going to pencil him in for now.  Olson was the 48th pick of the 2005 draft and has fared pretty well in the Orioles minor league system.  In 2006, he was the Orioles minor league player of the year and at AAA last year, he went 9-7 with a 3.16 ERA with 120 strikeouts in 128 innings.  He had a cup of tea last year at the major league level and, frankly, was lit up.  But he did have two quality starts out of seven and showed some very positive signs.  He knows how to keep the ball down in the zone and is very intelligent for such a young pitcher.  He’ll be inconsistent in 2008 but should give the Orioles a handful of quality starts.

5. Matt Albers (R)/Hayden Penn (R)/Steve Trachsel (R) - These are just the leading three candidates for this spot.  You could also throw in Brian Burres and perhaps even Radhames Liz, who we’ll get to.  Troy Patton would have been a favorite for this role but he is out for the year after having surgery on a torn labrum.  Albers, acquired in the Tejada deal, was shelled often last year for the Astros (5.86 ERA in 18 starts), but is probably an early favorite for this spot.  Hayden Penn should take over this spot or Olson’s spot in the rotation after he’s tuned up in the minors to start the year.  Penn, 23, had a successful 2006 at the AAA level but missed time last year after surgery to remove bone spurs from his elbow.  And if all else fails, the O’s also retained veteran Steve Trachsel for the 2008 season.  Trachsel posted a 4.90 ERA last year in 29 starts for the Orioles and Cubs combined.

Bullpen:

Middle Relief/Garbage Men: All the candidates mentioned above for the 4th/5th spots in the rotation could also spend some time performing mop-up duty and middle relief work for the O’s.  Right handed specialist Chad Bradford (3.34 ERA in 78 appearances in ‘07) will also be available for all innings.   Jim Hoey (R) (7.30 ERA in 23 appearances) figures to get another look.  We may even see Esteban Yan crawl out of the woodwork and pitch in this pen.  Ouch.

Setup Men:  Danys Baez (R) (who fleeced the O’s into a 3 year, $19M last offseason) and Chris Ray (R) both went under the knife for Tommy John surgery last season and will most likely miss all of 2008 (although Ray may make an appearance late in the year).  That leaves the primary setup men as Jamie Walker (L) and Greg Aquino (R).  Walker is an above average left-handed setup man, who made the first year of his three year, $12 million deal signed last winter a good one for Baltimore.  He held 21 games for Baltimore last year while handing in a 3.23 ERA in 61 innings (81 appearances).  Aquino, meanwhile, was once a favorite to close in Arizona a few years ago but has since battled injuries and ineffectiveness and now finds himself in Baltimore.  He had a successful year for AAA Nashville (Brewers) last year, throwing 38 innings with a 2.23 ERA.  But the 29 year-old still remains untested against big league bats.  Right-hander Dennis Sarfate could also emerge as a go-to guy in the late innings for manager Dave Trembley.  Sarfate was another piece acquired in the Tejada trade.  He gave up just 1 run in 8 innings for the Astros last year while striking out 14 and had 68 K’s in 61 innings of AAA ball last year (but a 4.52 ERA).  Chad Bradford (mentioned above) will also be used in the “right” situations.

The Closer: Acquired in the Erik Bedard deal, soon to be 31 year old George Sherrill (L) will the get the first crack at the closer’s job for the 2008 Orioles.  He brings a low 90’s fastball and decent slider to the hill, and has been a successfull left-handed setup man for the Mariners over the last two seasons.  Last season, he held 22 games for the M’s and posted a 2.37 ERA with 56 K’s in 46 innings.  Batters hit just .179 against him and he even fared well against right-handed hitters (.212 BAA).  He was, however, the benefactor of a low BABIP (.240) which  may not carry over in Baltimore and he does have a tendency to wear down late in the year.  Baltimore should hope he starts off hot and then fleece a team for him at the trade deadline.

Pitching Prospect Watch:  Right-hander Radhames Liz is probably the top pitching prospect for this club, now that Troy Patton is shelved.  Liz struck out 149 batters over 133 innings last season between A and AA ball, but also walked 75.  We should see the 24 year-old at some point this season, whether it be starting or long relieving. 

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Conclusion:

I’m sorry, Baltimore.  This turd simply cannot be polished in 2008.  My prediction is that the Orioles will lose 100 games this season.  Plus, the 2008 Rays won’t be there to act as the AL East laughingstock this year, as they look poised to turn the corner.  So the O’s will have to play that role in 2008.  I mean, just look at this team.  Aside from Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, and perhaps Luke Scott, their offense simply isn’t worth watching (assuming Brian Roberts is finally dealt).  If Kevin Millar, Aubrey Huff and Melvin Mora were free agents, for example, would there even be a market?  I highly doubt it.

Pitching wise, Adam “Lindsay” Loewen is intriguing, and maybe Daniel Cabrera can find his groove.  But can the O’s really count on Jeremy Guthrie to repeat his 2007?  I doubt it.   The bullpen may be improved with Sherrill, but it’s certainly not dependent.

But going forward, maybe there is some hope for this fanbase that deserves so much better.  The 78 year-old Peter Angelos may just be ready to let a baseball man make key decisions - that being Andy MacPhail.  The trade of Miguel Tejada (two years too late) was a good sign for Baltimore, even if they received a less than exciting package.  And although trading a young ace like Erik Bedard is risky, at least MacPhail was able to grab a stud CF like Adam Jones and a possible closer in George Sherrill they may be able to eventually flip for a larger bounty.

So perhaps there is hope for the coming years.  But as long as Peter Angelos is the owner of this team, I’ll always remain pessimistic for them.  Mr. Angelos: Just do everyone a favor and sell the team.

Filed under: Baltimore Orioles, _Polls, _Team Outlooks (2008)