Last season (2007) ended very abruptly as the Cubbies were swept out of the playoffs by the N.L. West Champion D’backs. What promised to be an exciting run into October for the squad after winning the N.L. Central crown, turned into a nightmare of a series in which the Cubs scored just 6 runs over three games, and went very quietly into the night.

But those 100 years have passed, and there is now reason for optimism (cautious, of course) at Wrigley Field these days, with a lineup loaded with sluggers and a pitching staff that just might have enough in the tank to make a run at a title in a weaker National League and an even weaker N.L. Central Division. Lou Piniella enters his 2nd season as manager of the team, and he should have a better handle on the group as a whole. Piniella is one heck of a manager and with the right talent, there is no doubting that he can get the job done.

We start by looking at the lineup, which figures to be the strength of the team. This is the most recent lineup that Sweet Lou is envisioning:

Lineup:

SS: Ryan Theriot (R) - Theriot gives you that David Eckstein/Joe McEwing intangible when he is in the game. Not blessed with a great arm, plus power or even the ability to hit .300 consistently, he is a guy who just seems to get the job done. In 148 games last season (some of which he was only a part-time player), he managed to score 80 runs and drive in 45. He also swiped 28 bags, which led the team. He is a sparkplug kind of guy whose splits are not very attractive (.266/.326/.346), but every team should have a guy like Theriot. I can’t imagine him lasting the leadoff spot all season. And he likely won’t if the team trades for Orioles 2B Brian Roberts, as expected.

LF: Alfonso Soriano (R) - We shall see how long Soriano will accept hitting outside of the leadoff spot, even though he isn’t a proto-typical leadoff batter. Soriano hit 33 HR with 70 RBI last season. His .299/.337/.560 were pretty impressive for a top of the order hitter. His 19 steals were a far cry from his 40+ days of the past, but you wonder how much of that was due to his injuries as he only played 135 games last season. With a healthy Soriano, expect him to put up over 30 HR and score a ton of runs out of the leadoff spot in the order. Of note, his defense has gotten a lot better as well, as he added 19 assists from the OF spot.

1B: Derek Lee (R) - While we will likely never see the Lee of 2005 again (46 HR, 107 RBI), he is still a force to be reckoned with. You can likely expect a .300 hitter with somewhere close to 30 HR and a tough AB everytime he steps in the box. Oh, and his defense is gold-glove caliber as well. Lee will have great protection if in fact he is sandwhiced between Soriano and Ramirez. He is already arguably the most dangerous all-around hitter on the squad, and this can only make him better. The Cubs could also end up putting Soriano back in the leadoff spot with Fukudome in the 2-hole, and give the team a right/left/right trio to lead off the order. That could give opposing managers fits late in games. 

3B: Aramis Ramirez (R) - Ah, if only he were lefty, this would be such a balanced 3, 4, 5 in the Cubs lineup, but I think I would learn to deal with it the way it is as a Cubs fan. Ramirez missed time last season as well, but when he was out on the diamond he produced big time (.310/.366/.549). He chipped in with 26 HR and 101 RBI in just 132 games for the Cubs. You gotta expect his 30 HR and 110-120 RBI this season, so long as he remains healthy, of course. He is fairly erratic at 3B at times, but with the numbers he puts up, you can live with that. Both he and Lee can mash and have been doing so for years in Chicago now…and it looks like help is finally on the way.

RF: Kosuke Fukudome (L) - Insert crude joke here. In all seriousness though, this could be one of the most pivotal players in the National League this season. If Fukudome makes good on the hype surrounding him, then this lineup will be scary good. If he is an average player, then the lineup gets a lot shorter and the same old 3 guys will need to carry the load. In Fukudome’s last full season in Japan (2006), he hit an impressive 31 HR with 104 RBI. His splits were pretty nasty as well (.351/.438/.653). One might say those are off the charts and they are, but that was in Japan. While there is no perfect way to see how a player will adjust to the U.S. game, there seems to be a pretty good success rate with a superstar players coming over (Kaz Matsui not withstanding). Many compare Fukudome to a Bobby Abreu-type of hitter, which is exactly what the Cubs need. Not blessed with great OBP players, this is a perfect fit if Fukudome comes through. I expect big things.

2B: Mark Derosa (R) - An irregular heartbeat caused Derosa to undergo surgery this Spring, but he is back on the field as we speak and will likely take the 2B spot in the lineup, so long as the rumored Brian Roberts deal from the Orioles does not happen. (Many think that deal is very much alive, but until it happens, DeRosa figures to hit right here in the order). You won’t find a lot of 2B in MLB with a better line last season than DeRosa (we know he played a lot of different spots last season, of course). He hit 10 HR with 72 RBI and 64 runs scored in 149 games. His .293/.371/.420 might suggest he would be a better hitter in the 2-hole than Theriot, but it seems Piniella and the Cubs like his ability to drive in runs and therefore want him in the 6 spot. He is a very versatile player and can bounce around if need be, but given the job here at 2B everyday, he could definitely pay dividends for you.

C: Geovany Soto (R) - If you’re a fantasy baseball die-hard like most of us are, you surely have seen this guy’s name all over the “sleeper” lists of the experts. It seems the Cubs are finally ready to go with the 25 year old kid behind the plate after the Jason Kendall experiment last season was a major failure. Soto is all projection in the majors, of course, but scouts rave about his ability to drive the ball. The AAA MVP in 2007, Soto will have little pressure on him in the 7 spot of the order, but with a breakout-type of year, he could really extend this lineup. Last season, in only 18  games, Soto hit .389/.433/.667 with 3 HR and 8 RBI. Keep an eye on this kid.

CF: Felix Pie (L) - Here is one of your “toolsy” guys. Aside from the “operation” he underwent yesterday, Pie figures to open the year as Chicago’s everyday CF. The 23 year-old will be under little pressure in the 8 spot. He needs to play some solid defense and contribute offensively whenever he can, but not much will be expected of him early on. He struggled mightily last season in limited duty, hitting only .215 for the Cubs. Some scouts love the kid and think the sky is the limit, while others see a toolsy guy who just hasn’t and might never put it all together. His speed and defense have arrived. The question is: can his bat catch up as well? Time till tell…

Bench: The reserves are fairly well-balanced with a big thumper from the left side in Daryl Ward (L), who figures to back up Derek Lee. Ward was a solid contributor for the Cubs last season in only 110 AB’s. He hit 3 HR and drove in 19 with a .327 average. Ronny Cedeno (R) is an all glove, little bat type of player. He can play anywhere on the IF as a reserve, but his average hovered around the Mendoza line all last season, so don’t expect much aside from speed and defense out of the young man. Matt Murton (R) can be used as a right-handed sub for either Fukudome or Pie against a tough lefty. Good thing too because he smashes left-handed pitching. In 91 AB last season, Murton hit .319 off of lefties. Henry Blanco (R) expects to be the backup catcher and youngster Sam Fuld (L) could fill out the reserves and possibly fill in if Pie struggles.

Prospect Watch: With Pie and Sota in the big leagues, the Cubs don’t have much in the form of offensive prospects on the horizon. Many consider Fukudome a rookie as well, yet I think that is absurd, so we won’t include him either. If you search the farm of the Cubs, you will find an intersting OF by the name of Tyler Colvin (L). Colvin was a 1st round pick in 2006 by the Cubs out of Clemson. He is a “five tool player” by all accounts. He slugged 16 HR in his time in A and AA ball last season. He hovered right around the .300 mark, although his OBP was in the low .300’s as well. With a logjam in the OF though, Colvin will have a rough time breaking into the fold this season.

Starting Pitching:

#1: Carlos Zambrano (R) - When you think of an ace, this guy is what you think of. A big strong guy with electric stuff who makes his 35 starts every season. Last year was another good year for Zambrano, even though, at times, it seemed he was a bit off his game (possibly due to the ongoing contract battle). Well, in 2008, Zambrano should have 90+ million reasons to be a lot more relaxed at Wrigley as he signed his contract in the middle of last season. His ERA was a bit high last year checking in just under 4, but pitching in Wrigley is going to inflate an ERA quite a bit and even in that off year, he racked up 18 wins. Still, he was always in the low 3’s and even had a 2.75 ERA in 2004. Many wonder if his arm is on the decline, since he has really thrown a ton of innings and sliders in his career. Is he on the downside now or was last year a fluke?

#2: Ted Lilly (L) - Many cried fleece when Lilly signed his 4 year deal with Chicago in the offseason last year, but all of those people have egg on their faces as the crafty lefty finished with 15 wins and a 3.83 ERA that lead the rotation. Has Lilly finally found a home? Perhaps. His BAA was in the .230’s and he had a very good WHIP of 1.14 to go along with 174 K’s. He is probably best slated in the #3 spot of a rotation on a really good team, but he is likely good enough in this spot on the Cubs, since the offense is likely to score enough runs to win games where he might give up 4 runs or so.

#3: Rich Hill (L) - While Hill’s win total was only 11 last season, he pitched much better than that. His ERA was 3.92 and he struck out 183 batters in 195 IP. His wicked curveball is very Barry Zito-esque. In fact, he is a very similar pitcher to Zito (Zito of Oakland, not Zito of now). I would expect similar things from Hill this season as well and could totally see him as a huge breakout candidate for all you fantasy players out there. I’d be very surprised if he didn’t win 15 games this season taking into account his maturation as well as the capabilities of the offense.

#4: Ryan Dempster (R) -  Flip a coin here. As a closer last season, Dempster was atrocious. He was bad enough that the Cubbies had to replace him in that role. Now, he tries a comeback as a starting pitcher and figures to slot in the #4 spot in the rotation. There have also been rumblings that Pinella might put him #3, and Hill #4. Is Dempster really the third best SP on this roster? No, but Sweet Lou might consider him there, likely to get a good righty/lefty balance going. Dempster’s last season as a SP was in Cincinatti, where he won just 3 games in 20 starts and compiled an ERA of 6.54. Not sure that is what the Cubs are hoping for in this spot. Seems awfully risky to send this guy out there as a starter. He did start 3 games as a Cub back in 2005 and had some success, but that was as a part-time guy, so who knows if he can sustain that level. Time will tell.

#5: Jon Lieber (R)/Jason Marquis (R) - Neither of these guys are going to wow you off of last year’s numbers. Lieber had an ERA of 4.73 last season for the Phillies in only 39 IP and Marquis had an ERA of 4.60 in 33 starts for the Cubs last season. Both of these guys will give up a lot of hits but neither of them will walk many guys, which is good, I guess. In the end, neither of these two will be anything special, but if they can just keep the team in the game for 5-6 innings, I think the Cubs would be relatively happy. Tough to say who gets this spot though. Lieber has a bit more experience, while Marquis is a younger and bit more durable. And will the loser of the battle accept a bullpen spot with any class? Who knows!

Prospect Watch: The Cubs have a nice stable of young arms in the minor leagues right now. Of the top 10 prospects in the Cubs system, Baseball America ranks three SP in the Top 5. Donald Veal (L) is #2 (rumored to be going to Baltimore in the Roberts deal), Jeff Samardzija (R) is #3 and Sean Gallagher (R) is #5 (also rumored to be part of the deal for Brian Roberts). With a shaky Dempster and Lieber/Marquis combo in the rotation, any one of these three youngsters might get a shot in the rotation at some point, although, you’d have to assume the Lieber/Marquis loser will be the first option to fill in for a shaky SP. Veal (23) is a big lefty with electric stuff, yet his problem is he is erratic. He K’ed 131 batters in 130 IP last season in AA ball, but he also walked 73 guys. If he can harness his stuff, he can be a pretty special SP. Samardzija is better known for catching passes from Brady Quinn at Notre Dame but he is a pretty good SP as well. Taken early by the Cubs in the draft, Samardzija has a ways to go before he reaches the mound in Wrigley. He was in AA ball for a brief time last season, but the Cubs think he can come fast. Lastly, Sean Gallagher might be the best of the lot. He reached the big leagues last season for a quick minute, but did not get a chance to start any games. Before getting called up, he was downright dominant in AAA - 40 IP, 3-1, 2.66 ERA, 37 K, 1.13 WHIP.

Bullpen:

Middle Relief: Look for Neal Cotts (L), Scott Eyre (L) and Michael Wuertz (R) to fill in the middle innings for this club. Cotts and Eyre are both lefties, which is not ideal. but they both have the potential to be pretty effective. Eyre makes big money for a guy who can’t seem to retire a righty at all (.317 BAA and 2.08 WHIP against). Wuertz, quietly, had a good season for Chicago last season. He finished with an ERA of 3.48 in 72.1 IP. He was able to strikeout 79 batters while walking 35 (a bit high for a RP). He will be that right-handed guy to go to in the middle innings for some help out of the pen.

Set-up Men: Depending on the day, this could change for the Cubs, but we are sticking with what we originally reported here at the Factor and putting Bob Howry (R) and Kerry Wood (R) in the set-up roles. Howry bounced around last season and eventually racked up 8 saves for the Cubs with an ERA of 3.32. He remains one of the more reliable and effective set-up men in baseball. While he might not blow you away with his stuff, he consistently gets the job done. Although, his 7 losses last season do raise a bit of a flag. Wood is a big question mark for this team. If he is ever healthy and can pitch on a semi-regular basis out of the pen, he could be a huge factor in the NL Central race as well as the playoffs. His stuff suggests he can be as dominant as anyone in a single inning, but he needs to prove he is durable enough to handle the role. He did not throw in back to back days even once last season, which is something he will need to do in order to add depth to the pen. If he is out every other day, the Cubs pen gets much weaker on those days. In a two month period last season, Wood pitched in relief and finished with an ERA of 3.33. More importantly, he struck out 24 in 24 IP.

Closer: We have gone along with the premise that the Cubs will use Carlos Marmol (R) as the closer in 2008 and why not! The guy was filthy last season. His numbers were unreal, but just watching this guy pitch was a joy. His pitches move more than just about any pitcher I have seen in a long time. Would you like a closer that pitched to a 1.43 ERA last season? Not enough to entice you? How about 96 K’s in 69 IP? Still not sold? Then maybe his .169 BAA will do the trick. You get the point, his numbers were gross. But there is a big difference between pitching the 8th and the 9th. Just ask Armando Benitez. Can Marmol make the leap to join the elite closers in MLB? If you ask me, I say yes, for sure.

CONCLUSION:

The Cubs won 85 games last season in a down NL Central. Aside from the Brewers, no team really took off at any point during the season in the division. While the Brewers will be back and likely improved, I don’t see that third team emerging this year either. So, it will be a two horse race again, as it was last season. Now what will be the deciding factor between these two squads is the question? I see very similar teams when I look at these two, yet the Cubs stick out to me for one big reason right now… and that is the state of the pitching staff.

Both of these teams can mash. I give the Brew Crew the edge in offense, but not by too much. The rotations are fairly comparable, yet I give the Cubs the edge because their ace is healthy year-after-year, while Ben Sheets is just never fully healthy it seems. And the biggest edge to me, lies in the bullpen, especially if Kerry Wood is anywhere near what he was last season late in the year. Teaming up Howry, Wood and Marmol in the last three innings could be deadly on the opposition. All it will take from a Cubs starter is likely 6 IP, and then let those three hurlers bring the game home.

In the end, I think the Brewers and Cubs will be neck and neck for much of the season and of course, barring any injuries, this could come down to the wire. And the last 3 games of the season for the Cubs are in Milwaukee, which could be a huge series if it plays out like I think it will. But after 100 years of heartache, I think the Cubs will win the division with somewhere in the 88-91 wins range, and then make a nice run in the NL playoffs. Do they make it to the World Series? Or possibly even win the Series? You’ll have to wait for our pre-season predictions to see how far I think they will go…

Your thoughts on this two horse race, sorta like the one between Seabiscuit and War Admiral at Pimlico?

Filed under: Chicago Cubs, _Polls, _Team Outlooks (2008)