The Dodgers finished last season two games over .500 (82-80), yet that was only good enough for 4th place in the ultra-compeitive NL West division. Their 82 wins put them 9 games behind the division champion Arizona Diamondbacks, and 6 1/2 games behind the 3rd place San Diego Padres. GM Ned Colletti clearly needed a plan to get his club over the hump, and back into the postseason. People might forget, but 95 games into the 2007 season, the Dodgers actually had the best record in the NL.

The offseason addition of manager Joe Torre, who wasn’t re-signed by the New York Yankees, may have been the biggest offseson acquisition that the Dodgers made, even taking into account the big signings of free-agent’s Andruw Jones and Hiroki Kuroda. He brings an aura of winning to Chavez Ravine, and immediately commands respect.

The National League West might just be the most competitive division in all of baseball again in 2008. The Dodgers are just one of four teams that have a legitimate shot at winning the divisional crown (Giants blow), and making it to The Dance. Let’s take a look at how the roster might shake-down. Torre and the Dodgers could go a number of directions with this lineup, however:

Lineup:

SS: Rafael Furcal (S) - The 30-year old shortstop is entering his contract year, after having a down season in 2007 where he hit only .270, with a lousy 6 HR’s and 47 RBI. Furcal suffered a bad ankle sprain in late spring last year, and it clearly hampered him during the bulk of the season. Up until September, when he stole 12 bases, his monthly high in thefts was THREE! That clearly isn’t like him, since he averaged 42 a year in the previous 2 season. With Rafael seemingly 100% again, he will prove to be a valuable leadoff hitter for the Dodgers. They will look for him to match his 2006 totals, when he hit .300/.369/.445, with 56 XB-hits, 113 runs and 37 SB’s. He has incredible range on defense, and possesses a canon in his right arm. He just makes some wild throws at times.

LF: Juan Pierre (L)- Pierre is rumored to be in a positional battle this spring with youngster Andre Ethier. But with Joe Torre at the helm now, and with the $8 million the Dodgers are over-paying for Pierre in 2008, in only his 2nd year of a horrendous 5-year deal ($44 million), I think he gets first crack. Pierre does have one major asset… speed. He has the most steals in all of baseball since 2002, and remains a terrific threat still to swipe a bag at any time (64 last season). He is also a great contact hitter who can put almost any pitch in play. He has averaged only 40 K’s a season over the last 3 years. But Pierre is also impatient at the plate, and doesn’t draw many walks (only 33 last season), which leads to a terrible OBP. His high in the category over the last 3 years is only .331, not exactly what you want out of a top-of-the-order hitter. But again, his speed and contact rate allow him to stay at the top. As for defense, Pierre has solid range, but a throwing arm that resembles an infant’s.

C: Russell Martin (R) - I am a huge fan of this kid, and why not. He can do it all from behind the plate. He hits well, throws well, calls a good game, is a solid teammate, and has speed. In 2007, Martin had a “breakout” campaign, thus putting himself into the upper echelon of catcher’s in the majors today. He batted .293, with a .374 OBP, 19 HR’s (54 XB-hits), 87 RBI and 21 SB’s. Oh yeah, and he led all National League catchers by throwing out 33% of all potential base stealers. Martin is only 25 years of age too, and is still maturing. He might take the NL by storm in 2008, as he could certainly move into the 3-hole and put up silly numbers. He won the a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger in 2007. In 2008, look for him to be even better. Martin absolutely mashes left-handed pitching, posting a .357 BA against it last year. Look for him to also improve on .255 BA at home. It should be noted that his power numbers and speed took a big dip in the 2nd half. 

2B: Jeff Kent (R)- Kent is currently working his way back from a hamstring tweak, but should be ready for Opening Day. Despite his age and fragility (averaged 125 games over last 2 years), he still probably remains the team’s most consistent hitter. Add the fact that he still has some pop in his bat (20 HR’s, 57 XB-hits in 136 games last season), and he makes a lot of sense for the Dodgers in the 4-hole in 2008. The case can certainly be made for Andruw Jones here too, but Kent will hit 50+ points higher (.302 in ‘07), and strikeout less than half as much (61). He also hits lefties and righties equally well. Now at age 40, this 2000 NL MVP, could be in the final season of his major-league career, and is looking to go out on top. Let’s hope his range at 2B magically improves too.  

CF: Andruw Jones (R) - The Dodgers, courting a new CF with power, signed Jones to a 2-year, $36.2 million contract this offseason. Jones, and agent Scott Boras, were looking to land a mega, long-term deal despite Jones’ horrendous 2007 season. Instead, they went with the highest AAV, and inked with LA. With the Braves in 2007, in a contract year mind you, Jones posted this embarrassing line: .222/.311/.413. In the last 3 seasons, his HR’s have dropped from 51 in 2005, to 41 in 2006, and then to 26 in 2007. In that same span, his strikeouts have risen from 112, to 127, to 138 last season. Pretty disturbing trends if you ask me. Throw in the fact that at 30, and now hovering above 235 pounds, Jones is not the elite CF he once was either. Don’t get me wrong, he’s still above average, clearly, but not $18 million+ better. But the Dodgers needed an upgrade in CF, and even more desperately needed to add power to their lineup, and they got that in Jones. They just better hope this down trend reverses itself in 2008. 

1B: James Loney (L)- He is finally getting the opportunity at a full-time 1B job with the team moving Garciaparra over to 3B full-time to make room, and it’s certainly the right move. This 23-year old posted an outstanding line of .331/.381/.538 in 96 games last season. He mashed 37 extra-base hits and drove in 67 runs. The 114 hits he produced in only 344 AB’s was quite impressive. Loney could stand to become a bit more patient at the plate, as he’s only drawn 36 walks in 446 major-league AB’s. He crushes both righties and lefties, and actually hit .370 on the road in 2007. Loney also plays smooth, solid defense over at 1B. The Dodgers certainly have high hopes for this kid in 2008, and for good reason. A .310/25/85 season should meet expectations. By the way, Loney lead all of minor-league baseball with a .380 batting average in 2006 (AAA).

3B: Nomar Garciaparra (R)- Now 34, this former 2-time AL batting champion and 1997 AL Rookie of the Year, is in the second year of a 2-year, $18.5 million deal that he signed with the Dodgers in 2006. He had a down year in 2007. And he is currently like he usually is… injured. Nomar has played over 79 games just *once* in the last 4 years. But he should be healthy by Opening Day, and with Andy LaRoche injured, Garciaparra is virtually guaranteed the starting 3B gig for the ballclub. When healthy, he is normally an extremely productive player. Nomar is a career .315 hitter, who can mash both righties and lefties (despite a .213 avg versus them last year). He has tremendous bat control and can make contact with almost any pitch, and he rarely strikes out. But with that high contact rate comes a low walk rate, and an OBP that is relatively low for a high-average hitter. Garciaparra is capable of playing any infield position in a pinch, which is also nice. The Dodgers just need him to stay healthy in 2008. 

RF: Matt Kemp (R)- Kemp actually had 100 hits even in only 292 AB’s in 2007 (.342 BA). Another 23-year old, he should get a shot at a full-time gig in 2008. Kemp crushed both right-handed and left-handed pitching, and mashed both at home and on the road. He even possesses a decent amount of speed on the base-paths. He finished 2007 with 10 HR’s, 42 RBI and 10 SB’s. However, Kemp is yet another Dodger that doesn’t draw many walks (only 16 last year), and can be prone to striking out sometimes. If for some reason he struggles early in 2008, this spot could also eventually end up going to Andre Ethier.

Bench: 25-year old Andre Ethier (L) could start in either LF or RF for the Dodgers at any point… maybe even on Opening Day, who knows. He is entrenched as the team’s 4th OF, if not. Utility-man Tony Abreu (S) can play second, short or third, but is currently dealing with issues dating back to his hernia surgery last year. Delwyn Young (S) is out of options, is another possibility make the team as a utility man, or get traded. He can play both the infield and outfield. In addition, the Dodgers have also been rumored to be looking in on the Nationals Ronnie Belliard to fill that role, as well as some others. Chin-lung Hu (R) will also compete for the infield job, but isn’t likely to make the club. Catcher Gary Bennett (R) will be backing up Russell Martin about once a week. Jason Repko (R) could make the team as a 5th OF.

Prospect Watch: Third baseman Andy LaRoche (R), 24, was expected to compete with Nomar Garciaparra for the starting 3B job in Spring Training, but a torn ligament in his thumb changed all that. The prospect will now be sidelined for 8-10 weeks, and relegated to the bench upon his return, most likely. But he will get his chance to shine in 2008, as Nomar will certainly get hurt at some point. It’s what he does. 22-year old Blake DeWitt (L) is another possibility to see some big-league time in 2008, but it wouldn’t be until the second half of the season (if injuries were bountiful).

Starting Rotation:

#1: Brad Penny (R) - Now at age 29, Penny is entering a contract year, which could bode well for the Dodgers, as he may be extra motivated. But can you really do any better than the career year he posted in 2007? Probably not. Last season, Penny went an incredible 16-4, while posting a 3.03 ERA in 208 innings of work. He is now 39-22 during his tenure with the Dodgers. Penny was actually much tougher on lefty hitters in ‘07, and regressed in the 2nd half of the season. He got off to a scorching 10-1 start prior to the All-Star break, with a 2.39 ERA, and extended that to 12-1 just a few starts later. But maybe the workload caught up to him after that, since he was “just” 4-3 going forward, and had a much higher .281 BAA in the 2nd half. Either way, it was a great season for Penny, and the Dodgers will certainly take a repeat performance in 2008. Penny can bring the heat on the mound, with a four-seam fastball that can reach into the upper 90’s. He also utilizes a solid sinker and a sweeping, power curveball.

#2: Derek Lowe (R) - Lowe is also in a contract year, and it appears that he has not had any talks with Dodgers brass yet about an extension, as yet. After going 16-8 in 2006, Lowe fell to just 12-14 last season, but his peripherals weren’t bad. He had an ERA of 3.88, a WHIP of 1.27, and a BAA of .254. While none of those jump off the screen at you, they are certainly solid nonetheless. A huge plus with Lowe… he is about as durable as they come, starting at least 32 games in each of the last 6 seasons, and reaching at least 199 innings 5 times. He can be downright dominant against righty hitters, but struggles against lefties at times. Something to note is that his numbers in the 2nd half were far off from his 1st. After the break, his ERA was an ugly 5.23, and batters hit a healthy .273 off of him. Lowe is obviously known for his sinker, which batters normally pound into the ground. He also mixes in a slider and curve occasionally, and tries to keep everything down in the zone.

#3: Chad Billingsley (R) - He started out the 2007 season in the pen, and then made his way into the starting rotation following another Jason Schmidt injury, and finished with 20 starts last season. He posted an impressive 12-5 mark, and struckout almost a batter per inning. He is dominant against righty hitters (.217 BAA), but needs to become more effective against lefties (.272 BAA, 4.24 ERA). Billingsley normally throws a lot of pitches, and doesn’t late too deep into games very often. He also gets into trouble with walks at times. Chad throws a fastball in the mid-90’s range, with a above-average curveball and decent slider. He will provide the Dodgers will a great 1-2 punch, along with super-prospect Clayton Kershaw (detailed below), for many years to come. I can see him getting to 16 wins in 2008 with a full season in the starting role.

#4: Hiroki Kuroda (R) - At 33, the Dodgers newest Japanese pitching import is no spring chicken. The organization signed him to a 3-year, $35.3 million deal this past offseason. He was his team’s Opening Day starter for the last 5 consecutive seasons in Japan. In 2007, he finished with a 12-8 record and 3.56 ERA. He seemed to wear down in the 2nd half of the season, and speculation was that it could have been from offseason surgery he had had on his right elbow. Kuroda is rumored to have a fastball in the low 90’s range, a solid forkball and a slider, and is known as a stike-thrower.

#5: Esteban Loaiza (R) - He will serve as the team’s 5th starter until right-hander Jason Schmidt gets back healthy again… IF he gets back healthy again. Loaiza was claimed off of waivers from the A’s, and made 5 starts as a Dodger in 2007. And fans are still wishing he didn’t. In those contests, Loaiza posted a 1-4 mark with a dispicable 8.34 ERA, 1.85 WHIP and .299 BAA. Despite those atrocious numbers, he was actually pretty tough on righty hitters, who hit .239 against him. In 2003, Loaiza won 21 games, and has a career record of 125-112. He can still remain effective, and just needs to “hold it down” until Schmidt gets healthy. Esteban throws a 4-seam fastball around 90 mph, a cut fastball in the high-80’s range, a slider and a changeup. 

Others: The oft-injured Jason Schmidt (R) figures to be back at some point, and would probably take over the #5 spot in the rotation, unless for some reason Loaiza is superbly effective in his starts prior to then. Schmidt will be entering the 2nd season of his 3-year, $47 million fleece with the Dodgers. He throws hard almost all the time, and challenges hitters with a fastball in the mid- to upper-90’s, a nasty slider and solid changeup. Hong-Chih Kuo (L) can be called upon to make some spot starts, if necessary. But he has also been a relief pitcher in his career, and may break camp in the pen.

Prospect Watch: 19-year old (20 in a few days) Clayton Kershaw (L) stands to need at least another half year of seasoning in the minors, before making the jump up to the bigs. In Baseball America’s most recent “top 100 prosepcts” list, Kershaw was the top left-handed pitching prospect, and #7 overall. He did only average fewer than 5 innings per start in the minors last season, however, so he’s probably not ready for a full season workload. He will need someone to get hurt or be radically ineffective to pitch in the bigs early on in 2008, but we could see a call-up in the 2nd half. The kid possesses an absolutely wicked curveball, dubbed by Vin Scully as “Public Enemy #1.” He’s not exaggerating either - check out the clip below. Kershaw also has a solid fastball and excellent control. In addition to Kershaw, keep an eye on pitchers Scott Elbert (L) and Jonathan Meloan (R) as well. Meloan is a power-pitcher who went 7-2, with a 2.03 ERA and 0.95 WHIP between AA-AAA in 2007. He could even be an eventual closer for the organization.

Bullpen:

Middle Relief: The Dodgers have a number of options to choose from to round out the bullpen to pitch before their normal 7th-9th innings guys. One guy assured of a spot is Joe Biemel (L). Others possible victims for Joe Torre to abuse out of the pen include: Yhency Brazoban (R), Eric Hull (R), Greg Miller (L), Rudy Saenez (R), Hong-Chih Kuo (L) (also mentioned above) and D.J. Houlton (R). Clearly, not all of them will be on the Opening Day roster, but I think we will see Biemel, Brazoban, Kuo and Saenez for sure.

Setup Men: The 8th inning duties, and the bridge to the closer Saito, will go to big-man Jonathan Broxton (R). He throws a devastating sinker in the upper-90’s, and mixes in a slider; solid command of his pitches. Lefties hit only .200 against him in 2007, and he had an insane 4:1 K/BB ratio. And perhaps the man least happy to see Joe Torre brought into L.A., Scott Proctor (R), who will likely pitch the majority of the 7th inning duties for the club. Torre overused the right-hander (83 appearances in 2006) with the Yankees, and it caused Proctor to become ineffective from fatigue and injury. Proctor has a fastball that run in the mid-90’s, and also utilizes a decent slider and changeup. In 2007, he pitched great for the Dodgers, going 3-0 with a .216 BAA. He is also equally effective against both righties and lefties.

Closer: The Dodgers boast one of the most under-appreciated, and least talked about closers in the game, Takashi Saito (R). Saito went 2-1 in 2007, and had 39 saves in 43 opportunities. Throw in a better than 5:1 K/BB ratio, 1.40 ERA, 0.72 WHIP and .151 BAA, and you have yourself a stud to close-out games. Righties have almost no chance against him, as they hit a paltry .114 in ‘07. Filthy. And the scary part is, Saito actually got stronger in the 2nd half. He signed a new 1-year deal with the Dodgers this past offseason, and deservedly so. While he isn’t a power pitcher like most closers, Saito has excellent command and changes the speed of his pitches well.

CONCLUSION:

Make no mistake, the 2008 Los Angeles Dodgers are Joe Torre’s team now. He is going to get the majority of the attention, and deflect the stress off of his players and onto himself. It might be what he did best with the Yankees.

This club now has an extremely solid mix of veterans, and young players with some decent major-league experience under their belt. The Dodgers also boast a promising starting rotation (with good depth), and what could be a top-2 bullpen in the National League. Having Proctor-Broxton-Saito to close out games is obviously a huge asset for Torre. He just needs to be careful not to fall in love with only using those guys every day, and thus running them into the ground by the All-Star break. Hopefully he’s learned from the past.

As for my prediction on the Dodgers this season, I will reiterate that the NL West is wide-open, and the winner is anyone’s guess. However, the Dodgers clearly have the talent to hang around the pack, and even take the division crown at season’s end. Right now, I am picking the Dodgers to finish 91-71, and in 1st place in the West. I feel that Torre will get them back into the postseason in 2008. Thoughts? 

Filed under: Los Angeles Dodgers, _Polls, _Team Outlooks (2008), _Videos