The Boston Red Sox won the World Series in 2007 following a thrilling playoff run that included an improbable ALCS comeback against Cleveland’s two-headed monster of a pitching staff sandwiched by sweeps over the Angels in the Divisional Series and the Rockies in the World Series.  It was Boston’s second World Title in four years, following an 86 year champagne drought.

Offensively, the Red Sox game plan is simple.  Get on base and let the big boys drive you in.  And it worked in 2007.  The team was 2nd in the American League in on-base percentage (.362), 1st in walks (689) and 3rd in slugging percentage (.444).  Although they were just 8th in homeruns (166), they took advantage of Fenway and were 1st in doubles (352, with 191 coming in Boston).  In fact, the team had an alarming .297/.379/.465 line at home.  All this led to the Red Sox finishing the year 3rd in the A.L. in run scored at 867 - or 5.35 runs per game - despite down years from many regulars.

And when you’re scoring that many runs, you don’t necessarily need a dominant pitching staff to get to the playoffs.  But the Red Sox did.  The team led the American League in ERA at 3.87 (ERA+ was 123).  Behind the likes of Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Curt Schilling, the pitching staff was 3rd in strikeouts (1149) and allowed the fewest hits (1350) in the A.L.  The bullpen, led by Jonathan Papelbon and Hideki Okajima, was just as impressive.  The five relievers with the most appearances all had ERA’s under 3.82.  Opposing hitters hit just .188 against Boston in games that were “late and close.”  The Sox pitchers can also thank the team defense, led by Coco Crisp, Jason Varitek, Mike Lowell and Kevin Youkilis..

But enough about 2007.  This is an outlook about 2008.   So what’s in store for the Red Sox this season?  The Red Sox haven’t made many changes via free agency but are instead letting a youth infusion take place this year.  Will it work? Let’s take a look at the roster and try and predict how the season will unfold for the World Champions:

The 2008 Boston Red Sox Starting Rotation:

#1. Josh Beckett (R) - Beckett was sensational last year, going 20-7 while providing the Red Sox with 200 innings, a 3.27 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 194 K’s.  Batters hit just .245/.286/.377 against him as the righty turned in a Cy Young worthy season (but placed 2nd to C.C. Sabathia) and anchored a staff that led the American League in ERA.  He then dominated the post-season (4-0 with just 4 ER in 30 innings), cementing himself as one of the best big-game pitchers in the game.  In 2007, Beckett also made the Red Sox a bit more comfortable about that Hanley Ramirez trade.  If you remember, in 2006 the hurler’s ERA ended up over 5 while young Hanley exploded onto the scene.  What happened in 07 to change Beckett’s results so much? Well, probably as a result of becoming more familiar with the American League, Beckett started missing bats more in 2007 (8.7 K/9 in 2007 vs. 7.0 in 2006) and also cut down his walk rate dramatically (40 BB’s in 2007 vs. 74 in 2006).  He also increased his groundball/fly ball ratio a tad (to 1.29 from 1.20) and had better luck keeping the ball in play, proving that the 36 homeruns he allowed in 2006 was not a fair indicator of his talent (he gave up just 17 bombs in 2007).  The scary thing for the American League is that these 2007 splits are much more in line with Beckett’s pre-2006 splits, so we should see a lot more of the same going forward.  The scary thing for the Red Sox, however, is that Beckett’s back injury this spring could very well linger or flare up later in the year.  The Red Sox need a healthy Josh Beckett to defend their title. 

#2. Daisuke Matsuzaka (R) - The $103 million man (including the $51M posting fee) won 15 games for the Red Sox in 2007 but did so despite giving up 25 homeruns and compiling an ERA of 4.40 and a WHIP of 1.32.  Control was a problem in every one of his poor starts, and was probably the result of unfamiliarity with opposing hitters, unfamiliarity with Major League umpires, fatigue, and nervousness.  But there were times when Dice-K was dominant and seemed like an ace.  Positive signs in Dice-K’s “rookie” season:  201 K’s in 204 innings; a .246 BAA despite .301 BABIP that should come down a tad in ‘08; a .184 BAA with 2 outs and RISP; and a 3.84 first half ERA suggesting fatigue in his 1st big league season was a significant factor in his inconsistency.  Look for three keys early in the year that will probably predict his 2008 outcome: Is Dice-K in better shape?  Is he more decisive and simple with his pitches (i.e. not nitpicking by throwing 4 different pitches to the same batter, but rather attacking him with a combo of the fastball/change-up combo)? And finally, can he keep the ball down in the zone to avoid the long ball?  Personally, I think Dice-K learned a lot about both MLB and what it takes to throw 200 innings in a season in 2007.  So I’m predicting a more consistent and better Matsuzaka in ‘08.  Look for about the same win total, but an ERA closer to that first half ERA of 3.84.  He should cement himself as a solid #2 this year.  If not, the Red Sox will have a $103 million fleece on their hands.

#3. Jon Lester (L) - In an incredible 2007 story in baseball and life, Jon Lester came back from a bout with lymphoma to help the Red Sox down the stretch and acted as a source of inspiration along the way.  Lester even won the clinching game of the World Series by pitching 5.2 determined innings of shutout ball against Colorado.  Now, after over a year of recovery and rehab behind him, we should get a peak at Jon Lester much closer to full strength in 2008.  With increased strength, we should see the re-emergence of the lefty’s velocity.  His two and four seam fastballs hit the mid-90’s in the minors but weren’t quite that powerful for all of last year (although he did bring it late in the year), and he was certainly not consistent with his velocity.  Pairing a consistent power fastball with his good curveball and decent change-up could result in Lester becoming a dangerous strike-out pitcher in the Majors.  Lester’s weakness is his command, however.  He had a 1.31 WHIP in 484 minor league innings and a 1.57 WHIP in the majors including 31 walks in 63 innings last year.  That command problem should still suffer in 2008 but should improve with time.  Overall, if the Red Sox are careful Lester this year, he could provide them with about 30 starts and around a 4.25 ERA.  His progression will be interesting to watch.   He certainly has the talent to succeed in this league, but his health situation makes him a very unique case - certainly one worth rooting for.

#4. Tim Wakefield (R) - As usual, the knuckleballer went out there pretty much every 5 days for the Red Sox in 2007.  He pitched 189 innings and went 17-12 despite a 4.76 ERA that and an ERA+ of exactly 100 (league average).  However, the ERA was clearly adversely affected by Wakefield’s back and shoulder problems late in the year.  In fact, his post All-Star break ERA was an inflated 5.25 versus a 4.39 first half mark.  The shoulder and back appear better now but at 41-years-old, one wonders how durable Wakefield can remain - even if he’s just throwing that butterfly.  Can the Red Sox bank on close to 200 innings again?  That will be a key question to this staff in 2008, given the other health concerns and youth of the remaining starters.  Good news for the Red Sox is that Bill James seems to think Wakefield has at least one more good year in him.  His handbook calls for a 4.03 ERA in 181 innings.  I think that’s a tad too rosey.  I’ll go with an ERA closer to that 4.39 first half ERA we spoke of.

#5. Clay Buchholz (R) - This 2005 1st round pick (sandwich pick and 42nd overall -coincidentally from the Mets for the Pedro Martinez signing), who features four pitches in his repertoire, raced through the minors where he went a combined 8-6 with a 2.46 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 356 K’s in just 285 innings  over three seasons (mostly in A and AA ball).  Then, in 2007, the 23 year-old turned heads by tossing a no-hitter in his second major league start for the Red Sox capped by a ridiculous hook on the last pitch of the game to seal it.  All in, his cup of coffee in the Majors last year was 22.2 innings in length and he posted a miniscule 1.59 ERA with 22 K’s.  His fatigued shoulder at the end of the year may have actually been a blessing in disguise for the Sox, as it forced them to ignore the temptation of putting Buchholz on the playoff roster and, instead, shut him down to preserve the youngster’s arm.  In 2008, there is talk of a rather high innings cap of 190.   That may be slightly aggressive, as the pitcher only threw 148 innings last year and just 119 the year before.  Ideally, I would start him off at AAA for the first month to limit his innings, but the injuries to Curt Schilling and perhaps Beckett erase that possibility.  So it looks like Buchholz will get a shot at some serious tick in ‘08.  He’ll show some signs of brilliance, but will most likely wear down later in the year.  For the season as a whole, I think you can expect an ERA hovering just below 4 that should yield him a record of about 13-9 or better.  If the Red Sox are careful with him, Buchholz should have a bright future in the bigs.  Oh, he also likes to get his mack on.

Others: Bartolo Colon (R)/Curt Schilling (R) - After having a productive year for Boston in 2006 (9-8 record in 151 innings with a 3.87 ERA), 41-year-old Curt Schilling slickly agreed to an $8 million dollar guaranteed contract this offseason.  In the process, he even portrayed himself as a hero because he didn’t entertain offers from other teams.  At the time, Schilling also gave the impression that he’s focused on staying in shape by putting weight clauses in his contract and by saying things like, in his words, he’s ready to “pull a Clemens” and reinvigorate his career.  But it was all a major fleece job by Schilling, who continues to tarnish that bloody sock legacy of his to a fan base that was once so grateful to him.  In February, Schilling revealed that he has a significant shoulder injury and, in fact, wanted to have season ending surgery to repair the injury.  The Red Sox would have none of that, however, and have instructed Schilling to rehabilitate the shoulder instead.  But even this will put him out until at least the All-Star break.  Hence the need to sign 2005 Cy Young winner Bartolo Colon to an incentive-laden contract.  Injuries have derailed Colon’s career over the last two years, but he has touched 94 MPH this spring and may be able to give Boston some starts earlier than they anticipated.  If Boston can get 120-160 decent innings out these two combined, it will be instrumental towards both the development of Buchholz and Lester (by allowing them extra days off) and towards the team’s title defense.  And the Red Sox may NEED that amount of innings (or more) out of these two if the backs of Josh Beckett and Tim Wakefield flare up during the year or if the two kids don’t progress as anticipated.  At the very least, the Boston fast food industry will be ECSTATIC that Colon is in town.

The 2008 Boston Red Sox Bullpen:

Middle Relief: If the Red Sox middle relief group was a rock band, you might call it “Crazy Julian and the 1st round busts.” Righty Julian Tavarez (R) will lead this group and he and Kyle Snyder (R) (a 1999 first round pick) may even get a few spot starts.  Tavarez threw 134 innings last year with a 5.15 ERA but his versatility is where his value lays.  Snyder was the 7th overall pick in the ‘99 draft by the Royals, but never fulfilled his potential.  The 6′8 righty, however, may have found his calling as a long reliever. In ‘07, he gave Boston 54 innings and a 3.81 ERA.  But he still needs to work on his control (32 BB’s).  (Both Tavarez and Snyder are being named in trade rumors.)  Also available for middle relief duties are David Aardsma (R) (another former 1st round bust acquired from the White Sox in January) and the wild card known as Craig Hansen (R).  Hansen could also be considered a 1st round bust if he doesn’t start living up to the hype soon. Drafted 26th overall in 2005 because of a high 90’s fastball and devastating Brad Lidge-type slider, Hansen has so far been awful (6.59 Major League ERA in 41 IP).  He did seem to make strides at AAA last year and had surgery in the offseason to correct a sleep apnea problem that may have caused him fatigue, so maybe 2008 is the year Hansen takes that big step, but I’m skeptical.

The Setup Crew:  Boston’s setup team will be led by Hideki Okajima from the left side and Manny Delcarmen from the right.  A quiet acquisition last winter, Okajima may have actually meant more to the Red Sox than fellow countryman Daisuke Matsuzaka in 2007.  The lefty made 66 appearances, throwing 69 innings, striking out 63 and posting a 2.22 ERA.  He held 27 games, saved 5, and batters hit just .202 against him.  (Surprisingly, righties hit just .182).  Okajima’s best weapon, however, is his deceptive delivery which I expect American League hitters to adjust to in 2008 resulting in a mild regression for the lefty.  The Red Sox will hope that any such regression, however, will be offset by more progression from 25 year-old right-hander Manny Delcarmen.  Delcarmen couples a mid to high 90’s fastball with a decent 12-6 curve ball, but had been very inconsistent up until the end of last year.  In 44 innings for the Red Sox in ‘07, he struck out 41 batters and posted a 2.41 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP.  The Red Sox are so high on him that they have made him 1st in line for saves should Jonathan Papelbon need some rest.  Backing up Okajima and Delcarmen for the 7th/8th role will be the 42 year-old right-hander Mike Timlin (3.42 ERA in 55 innings last year) and the side-arming left-handed specialist (or LOOGY) Javier Lopez (3.10 ERA in 41 innings). 

The Closer: Jonathan Papelbon (R) will bring his death stare and hard fastball/hard splitter combo to the mound as closer again for Boston.  The third year closer has now had back to back stellar years for the Red Sox, posting successive ERA’s of 0.92 and 1.85 while saving 72 games in the process.  Last year, batters hit just .107 with 2 outs and RISP and just .116 when the difference in the game was just 1 run.  In 161 innings at the Major League level, Papelbon has an astonishing 193 strikeouts, an ERA of 1.62, and a miniscule .92 WHIP.  His career ERA+ is a ridiculous 289.  As you can tell, he’s established himself as a top closer in the game and a huge strength for the Red Sox as a team.  The only weakness he may have is the health of his right shoulder which bothered him at the end of the 2006 season, but hasn’t presented a problem since.

The 2008 Boston Red Sox Lineup:

2B. Dustin Pedroia (R) - Pedroia won the American League Rookie of the Year in ‘07 by hitting .317/.380/.442.  His ability to work counts and his excellent contact rate (just 42 K’s) allowed Boston to plug him into the top of the order where he excelled (.393 OBP in 135 plate appearances as leadoff hitter; .362 as #2 hitter), and that allowed the Red Sox to have much greater flexibility with their lineup.  Manager Terry Francona deserves credit for sticking with Pedroia, as we cannot forget that the 24-year-old hit just .182/.308/.236 in April and had many Red Sox homers calling for his head.  Without Francona’s patience, Pedroia may have seen his development and confidence severely stunted last year, but now it appears the miniscule 2nd baseman is here to stay.  In 2008, we can probably expect to see Pedroia settle in to the .300/.380/.425 line that he should give Boston for the next few years, as well as slightly above average defense and a “scrapper” attitude that will serve the team well.

1B. Kevin Youkilis (R) - Youkilis entered 2007 as kind of a question mark.  Was he the player that he showcased in the first half of 2006 (.297/.407/.467) or was he the player that he showed in the second half (.258/.347/.381)?  Well, we didn’t really get our answer in 2007. Youkilis just confused us more by widening those splits (.328/.419/.502 in the first half and .238/.356/.391 in the second half).   Overall, the numbers equate to .279/.381/.429 with 16 homeruns and 83 RBI - certainly pretty good as a whole.  Youkilis’ OBP, pitch selection, and ability to hit anywhere in the lineup is a tremendous quality.  But Youkilis has to work on those 2nd half splits.  (To his credit, he lit it up in the playoffs by hitting .387, including .500 in the ALCS).  Maybe it’s the effect of his body wearing down due to all the increased work he has put into becoming a great defensive 1st baseman.  Or maybe he’s simply overused by Terry Francona (the Sox brought in Sean Casey which could help with that).  Either way, the Red Sox will need to figure this one out to make this a more consistent lineup throughout the season.

DH. David Ortiz (L) - Depsite nagging knee problems late in the year, The Large Father still turned in a tremendous stat line last year, hitting .332/.445/.621 with 35 homeruns and 117 RBI.  The knee problems clearly affected Ortiz’ homerun total (down from 54 and 47 that last two years, respectively), but Ortiz was able to morph into a hitting machine, setting career highs in batting average (.332), on-base percentage (.445), and doubles (52).  He took advantage of Fenway once again by hitting .365 at home (.298 on the road) and even hit left-handed pitching at a rate higher than his career norm (.308/.390/.462 in 2007 vs. .272/.345/.494 career).  And once again, Ortiz dominated in the post-season, hitting .370 with a .696 slugging percentage, three homers and 10 RBI in the 14 playoff games.  He was a beast.  And after having arthroscopic surgery on that right knee in November, he should be able to continue mashing in 2008.  The batting average will certainly fall a bit, but expect some of those 52 doubles to turn into HR’s now that full health has returned.  I expect a .300/.400/.600 year out of Ortiz with about 42 bombs - a typical Big Papi year.

LF. Manny Ramirez (R) - Manny is coming off a 2007 season where late season injuries derailed his chance at a 10th straight year with 30 HR and 100 RBI, which would have been an incredible feat.  Still, he finished with 20 HR’s, 88 RBI and a line of .296/.388/.493 which is impressive for only 133 games.  Ramirez returned to form in the American League playoffs where he hit .400 with 4 homeruns and 14 RBI in 10 games.  As for 2008, Manny has apparently been working out like a fiend in the offseason and  seems to be enjoying the Spring Training - a rare feat for the outfielder.  We’ve noted here that Ramirez is determined to force the Red Sox to pick up that $20 million option in 2009 (he has another one in 2010).  I think Manny is in line for a great season.  The fact that he’s already in such great shape may eliminate the early season swoon he encountered last season (.202/.314/.315 in April 07) and the contract situation should prevent him from “dogging it” in September.  I’m calling for results somewhere between the 2005 and 2006 numbers Ramirez posted. Let’s call it at .310/.400/.600 with close to 40 homeruns for the 35-year-old - numbers that will make the Red Sox jump at excercising that option.

3B. Mike Lowell (R) -  Lowell needed a huge year in 2007 to secure some massive cheddar on the free agent market this past winter.  And he delivered for himself in a big way.  He turned in a career year by hitting .324/.378/.501 with 21 homeruns, 37 doubles, and driving in a whopping 120 RBI while also providing Boston with his usual tremendous defense.  The impressive season resulted in the Red Sox handing the 34-year-old Lowell a 3 year, $37.5 million contract.  But can he replicate 2007 in 2008?  As mentioned, it was a career year for Lowell.  He had career highs in batting average, on-base percentage, hits and RBI.  Not only were they career highs, but all of these were well above his career arc - even if you strip out that horrid year in 2005 which made him a throw-in in the Beckett/Hanley Ramirez deal.  And while it’s true that Fenway Park is tailor made for him (Lowell hit .373/.419/.575 at home last year) and that he’s well protected in this lineup, I just don’t see Lowell repeating those tremendous 2007 numbers.  I’m calling for a regression back to around his 2006 numbers.  I’ll predict .290/.340/.480 - still good but not quite All-Star quality.  The Red Sox will hope that any decline in Lowell’s production will be offset by a resurgence from the guy scheduled to bat behind him.  Speaking of that…

RF. J.D. Drew (L) - Most of the 2007 regular season was a complete and utter disaster for Drew.  In total, he hit just .270 with a meager 11 homeruns, struggling to even improve upon Trot Nixon’s recent production from past years.  The $70M man that was brought in to hit behind David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez often hit 6th or 7th in the lineup because of his own ineptness.  Drew couldn’t hit lefties, hit into 12 double plays and seemed to strike out looking in a key spot in nearly every single game (although his patience did result in a .373 OBP).  Though his defense was above adequate for the spacious Fenway right field, his incredibly poor offense masked it.  If not for Mike Lowell covering for him all year in the lineup, it’s quite possible that the Red Sox fans and the Boston media would have torn this man apart at the seams and brought him to tears.  Let’s be honest: From April through August, J.D. Drew was a complete embarrassment.  But then came September.  That month, Drew turned his season around suddenly and miraculously by hitting an impressive .342/.454/.618.  He slumped through the ALDS, but then carried his September magic through to the ALCS versus Cleveland where he hit .360 and delivered a memorable Grand Slam in Game 6 that propeled his team to the World Series.  There, Drew he hit .333 en route to a World Title.  But enough about that.  What about 2008?  Can Drew carry these September/October performances through to the 2008 season?  It’s always hard to doubt this man’s talent, as he has a perfect swing and tremendous plate discipline.  And in this lineup - with more knowledge of the American League - I would think a .290/.400/.500 season is more than just a possibility for Drew.  But here’s why I’m concerened: Is it possible for J.D. Drew to stay healthy for what would be a third consecutive year?  What are the Vegas odds on that, considering this guy’s nickname is Nancy Drew?  J.D. has never even had three straight years of 400 at-bats due to numerous injuries, yet we’re supposed to expect 450-500 at-bats for a third straight year.  He’s due for a huge injury, right?  Well, the Red Sox certainly hope not.

C. Jason Varitek (S) - After a horrible 2006 season at the dish (.238/.325/.400) that had many in the Red Sox camp thinking Varitek was on his way out the door, the Red Sox captain turned in a semi-respectable .255/.367/.421 line in 2007.  And given Varitek’s plus defense, remarkable preparation skills and leadership qualities, the Red Sox will take that line from him and hope he can repeat it in 2008, his last year of a 4 year, $40 million contract.  One thing they have to worry about is Varitek’s tendency to break down late in the year.  I know that all catchers experience this but Varitek turns 36 in April and hit just .225 after the All-Star break last year.  The Red Sox should pay more attention to this and give their starting catcher more built-in days off than just Tim Wakefield’s starts (where Kevin Cash has taken over that role).  Also worth noting is that Boston does not have an in-house successor for Varitek (although George Kottaras looked good this Spring) that will be ready in 2009, so “Tek” could be in a position to completely fleece the Red Sox next winter if he turns in a decent year.  I expect a similar season as last year, which will put the Red Sox in a tough position next winter.

CF. Jacoby Ellsbury (L)/ Coco Crisp (S) - Obviously, Ellsbury is the favorite to start at this position and I certainly do not anticipate a platoon.  But given manager Terry Francona’s fondness for Crisp’s defense, we may see Coco in centerfield more often than we think (if he’s not traded, of course).  Regarding Ellsbury, the 2005 first round pick (23rd overall) stormed onto the Major League scene at the end of last season by hitting .353/.394/.509 in a decent sized sample (116 at-bats).  And when the Oregon St. product was plugged into the starting lineup in the World Series due to Crisp’s offensive ineptness, Ellsbury didn’t show any signs of nervousness.  He hit .438 (7 for 16) in the Fall Classic with 4 doubles and 3 RBI and provided the Sox with a much needed sparkplug.  The 24 year-old certainly won’t be able to carry those numbers through an entire season in 2008, but Jacoby did hit .314/.390/.426 in 1,017 minor league at-bats (including .298/.360/.426 in 363 triple-A at-bats last year).  So it wouldn’t shock me to see something like a .285/.355/.420 line in his rookie campaign with Boston, and possibly a move up to the leadoff spot (especially against right-handers).  Plus, the kid can run.  He was clocked by Baseball America as the fastest player in the 2005 draft, and carried that over to the minor leagues by swiping 105 bags in 250 games and showing tremendous range in centerfield.  Speaking of great centerfield defense, Coco Crisp might have been the best defensive centerfielder in the American League last year despite his noodle arm.  But the 28 year-old’s offense was sub-par, as he hit just .268/.330/.382.  Crisp did have his moments in 2008 - particularly in June (.330 average) and July (.323 average) - where one might have thought the 2005 Coco Crisp was back.  And maybe he will come back.  But with Jacoby Ellsbury ready to go, the Red Sox have no reason to give Coco Crisp a third chance.  I expect a trade at some point.  This job is Ellsbury’s.

SS. Julio Lugo (R) - Lugo completely fleeced the Red Sox into a 4 year, $36 million deal last winter and made the Red Sox aware of this fleece by turning in the worst year of his career in 2007, by far.  Lugo finished with a line of .237/.294/.395.  Just awful.  He walked just 48 times in 630 plate appearances (7.6%) and hit .190 on the road.  Somehow, however, he batted in 73 runs.  Defensively, he made 19 errors, had a mediocre .968 fielding percentage, a .822 zone rating, and compiled the worst range factor he’s turned in as as shortstop over the last 5 years.  But Lugo’s mediocrity should have been forecasted by the Red Sox, and they shouldn’t have given him such an outrageous contract.  In his 8 year career, Lugo has had just 1 and a half seasons of above average production (2005 and the first half of 2006), and he’s never really shown any power or exceptional on-base skills.  (Don’t forget - the Red Sox signed him with the expectation that he’d be the team’s leadoff hitter).  Though he’s not as bad as his 2007 season suggests, Lugo is basically a .270/.330/.400 hitter that plays mediocre defense, and I expect him to come in around those marks in 2008.  If he struggles, don’t be shocked to see the Red Sox turn to backup Alex Cora or even youngster Jed Lowrie, who we’ll get to soon.

Prospect Watch: Pitching-wise, 22-year-old Justin Masterson tops the Red Sox prospect list now that Buchholz and Lester will start the year in the big leagues.  Masterson is a 6′6, 245 pound righty with a 3/4 delivery.  The 2006 second round pick has a repertoire that includes a hard sinker, decent slider and a changeup.  He was converted to a starter last season after spending 2006 as a reliever in A ball.  We may see him out of the pen or as a starter for Boston late in the year.  Michael Bowden (a 2005 first rounder) and Nick Hagadone (a 2007 first round pick) may have more potential but will both need another full year in the minors before getting a sniff at the bigs.  Bowden, another big righty, features four plus pitches, has great command for his age but still needs to perfect his mechanics.  Hagadone was a closer in college (Washington) but the Red Sox used the 6′5 lefty as a starter in 2007 and he fared pretty well and even increased his velocity up to the high 90’s. 
     Offensively, Jed Lowrie is the Red Sox prospect most ready for the big leagues.  The 23-year-old shorstop hit .300/.356/.506 a AAA last year while showing great plate discipline but little power.  His defense is suspect so he projects as 2B in the long term.  But, as mentioned, if Julio Lugo struggles early don’t be surprised if Lowrie gets the call up.  If Lugo turns it around, look for the Red Sox to use Lowrie in a trade as he is blocked at 2B by Pedroia.  The best offensive prospect in the Red Sox system is 1st baseman Lars Anderson.  The 20-year-old is a big left-hander with a great hitters eye and power potential but will likely not get the big league nod for another two years.  The Sox also have centerfielder Ryan Kalish, 19, and shortstop Oscar Tejada, 18, developing down in the low minors.

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CONCLUSION:

As mentioned in the opening, the Red Sox return a similar team in 2008 that was at the top of the league in both run production and run prevention in 2007, when they won the World Series.  Their pythagorean record in ‘07 was 101-61.   Can we expect that record in 2008?

They probably won’t win 100 games, but I think the Red Sox finish at 95-67 in 2008.  I’m stopping short of guaranteeing them the division as the Yankees, Blue Jays and even the Rays will give them competition throughout the year.  And the Red Sox starting pitching is not as deep as it should be, nor is it guaranteed to be as good as last year.  Still, the Red Sox should win the A.L. East.  And that will give them a chance to win a 2nd consecutive title and 3rd in 5 years which would arguably make them a dynasty and turn them into the team of the decade.  It’s amazing how the tide has turned for this once depressing franchise.

And the scary thing is this: Boston boasts a lineup that includes 24-year-olds Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury, a pitching rotation that already includes 27-year-olds Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka, 24-year-old Jon Lester and 23-year-old Clay Buchholz.  They also have a 27-year-old closer that may already be the best in the game.  And the team has young pitchers Justin Masterson and Michael Bowden chomping at the bit and infielder  Jed Lowrie ready to go.  Plus, Manny and Ortiz should have a few more monster years left in them.  Plus, the Red Sox have the resources to (a) keep these guys together throughout their prime; and (b) fill in the gaps via free-agency.  This team is going to be good for a long time.

Filed under: Boston Red Sox, _Polls, _Team Outlooks (2008)